Nigeria’s latest inflation data for May 2026 show that headline inflation rose to 15.93% year-on-year, up from 15.69% in April 2026, marking the third consecutive monthly increase in the annual inflation rate. However, on a month-on-month basis, headline inflation slowed to 1.75%, compared with 2.13% in April, indicating that the pace of price increases moderated during the month. The CPI also increased
to 140.7 in May from 138.3 in April.
Highlights
Headline CPI (YoY): Headline inflation rose to 15.93% in May 2026, from 15.69% in April 2026.
Headline CPI (MoM): Monthly headline inflation slowed to 1.75% in May 2026, compared with 2.13% in April 2026.
Food Inflation (YoY): Food inflation increased to 16.96% in May 2026, from 16.06% in April 2026.
Food Inflation (MoM): Food inflation slowed to 2.98% month-on-month in May 2026, from 3.63% in April 2026.
Core CPI (YoY): Core inflation stood at 16.82% in May 2026, compared with 15.86% in April 2026.
Core CPI (MoM): Core inflation rose to 1.94% month-on-month in May 2026, from 1.03% in April 2026.
Inflation Uptrend Extends as Headline Rate Rises to 15.93% in May
While annual inflation edged higher, month-on-month inflation slowed to 1.75% in May from 2.13% in April. This suggests that current
price momentum moderated during the month.
Food inflation remained the central pressure point in the CPI basket. It rose to 16.96% yearon-year in May from 16.06% in April, driven
by higher prices of key staples and household food items, including onions, maize, melon, water yam, cassava flour, crayfish, fresh
pepper, tomatoes, wheat grain, cassava tuber, yam tuber, sweet potatoes, ginger, plantain,and cowpea. This increase shows that food
prices continue to exert a disproportionate influence on household purchasing power and the broader inflation path. However, food
inflation slowed on a monthly basis to 2.98% MoM, from 3.63% in April, suggesting some moderation in the pace of food price
increases.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy, also rose to 16.82% YoY in May, compared with 15.86% in
April. On a month-on-month basis, core inflation increased to 1.94% from 1.03% in April, indicating stronger underlying price pressures
outside farm produce and energy.
The latest data indicate that Nigeria’s disinflation trend has not fully resumed, as year-on-year inflation continues to edge higher. At the same time, the slowdown in monthly headline and food inflation suggests that price increases were less intense in May than in April.
Overall, the May print reflects a mixed inflation picture: annual inflation is still rising, but short-term headline and food price momentum eased.
At the divisional level, the largest year-on-year contributions to headline inflation came from Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages at 6.38%,
Restaurants and Accommodation Services at 2.06%, Transport at 1.70%, and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels at 1.34%. This shows that food, services, transport, and housing-related costs remain the main drivers of consumer price pressure.
Food Inflation Remains Elevated in May, Despite MoM Moderation Food inflation remained elevated in May 2026, reflecting sustained pressure on household food costs. On a year-on-year basis, food inflation rose to 16.96%, up from 16.06% in April 2026, indicating that
food prices remained significantly higher than a year earlier.
The seasonal position also shows why food prices remained elevated. May falls outside the main harvest period, meaning fresh supply from farms is not yet entering the market in large quantities. As a result, consumers and traders depend more on existing food stocks. When stocks are limited and demand remains steady, prices tend to rise or remain high. This seasonal supply gap, combined with higher transport and logistics costs, has kept food inflation under pressure.
Food inflation also remains constrained by ongoing insecurity in key agricultural regions. These conditions continue to disrupt farming activities, restrict access to farmlands, and impede the movement of food from production areas to consumption centres. This further limits food supply and raises distribution costs, posing a continued risk to food prices and headline inflation
The conflict between the US, Iran, and Israel created uncertainty in oil markets, which fed into transport, food distribution, and the prices of other goods and services. However, the impact appears to have moderated in May compared with April. This suggests that although petrol and transport costs still added pressure to inflation, the intensity of the pass-through was weaker during the month.
Core Inflation Accelerated in May, Pointing to Broader Price Pressures
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy, also accelerated in May 2026, suggesting that underlying price pressures remained broad-based. On a year-on-year basis, core inflation rose to 16.82%, up from 15.86% in April 2026.
The rise in core inflation suggests that inflationary pressure is not limited to food items alone. Services, transport, housing-related costs, health, education, and other non-food categories continued to contribute meaningfully to the overall inflation picture.
More notably, on a month-on-month basis, core inflation increased to 1.94% in May from 1.03% in April 2026, suggesting that
businesses are passing higher operating costs to consumers. This indicates a renewed pickup in underlying inflation momentum, even as
headline and food inflation moderated on a monthly basis.
Bottom Line – June Inflation Outlook: Sticky Pressures, Softer Momentum
May inflation data showed that price pressures remain sticky, but the near-term outlook has become less tilted to the upside following the peace deal and the sharp decline in global oil prices. Headline inflation rose to 15.93% year-on-year from 15.69% in April, while food
inflation climbed to 16.96% and core inflation increased to 16.82%, suggesting that both food and underlying non-food price pressures remain elevated.
However, the easing in crude oil prices below $85/bbl reduces the risk of a renewed energy-led inflation shock. This is important for Nigeria, where fuel, diesel, transport, logistics, and food distribution costs are key channels through which global energy prices feed into domestic inflation. If lower oil prices are sustained and domestic fuel prices remain stable or decline, pressure on transport and production costs should gradually ease.
In June, inflation may remain sticky because the pass-through of lower oil prices to consumer prices is unlikely to be immediate. Food prices remain elevated, and core inflation rose month on month in May, suggesting that underlying price pressures have not fully faded.
However, the balance of risks has shifted. The likelihood of another sharp energy-driven acceleration has reduced, while the probability of gradual moderation from July into Q3 has improved.
From a market perspective, the latest inflation print still supports a cautious tone across rates and fixed income, as annual headline, food, and core inflation all moved higher in May. However, the decline in oil prices gives the Central Bank of Nigeria more room to maintain a
wait-and-see stance rather than respond aggressively to external energy-price risks, provided domestic prices begin to reflect the easing in global crude markets.
At the macro level, sustained inflation will continue to weigh on real incomes, raise operating costs, and constrain the recovery in demand. Still, the improved external energy market could help reduce cost pressures over the coming months, especially if supported by stable
exchange rates, improved food supply, and lower transport costs.
Our base case is that inflation remains sticky in June but with reduced upside risks. A clearer disinflation path could emerge from July if oil prices stay contained, domestic fuel prices remain stable, and food price momentum continues to moderate.
