Nigeria’s economy expanded by 4.43% YoY in Q2:2026, up from 3.89% in Q1:2026 and 4.23% in Q2:2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The improvement was supported by stronger activity across both the oil and non-oil sectors. The services sector grew by 4.60%, accounting for 56.62% of real GDP, while agriculture expanded by 4.39%. The non-oil sector also accelerated to 4.31%, supported by agriculture, ICT, trade, financial services, manufacturing and construction. The oil sector also recorded a stronger performance, growing by 7.31%, compared with 2.57% in Q1, as average crude oil production increased to around 1.72mbpd from 1.55mbpd in the previous quarter. However, industrial growth slowed to 3.96% from 7.46% a year earlier, highlighting that the recovery remains uneven across sectors. Overall, the Q2 figures point to improving economic activity and mark the strongest quarterly growth in several years, although the weaker industrial performance suggests that a broad-based recovery is yet to be fully established.
Dangote Petroleum Refinery is set to open its long-awaited Initial Public Offering (IPO) on September 14, following approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), in what could become one of the largest capital-market transactions in Nigeria. The company will offer 4.1 billion ordinary shares at ₦525 per share, potentially raising ₦2.15trn ($1.6bn) if fully subscribed. The IPO comes as Dangote Refinery looks to raise additional capital to support its expansion plans, with the company targeting an increase in refining capacity from 650,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day. The refinery has benefited from strong demand for refined petroleum products amid disruptions to global energy supply. The transaction is expected to attract significant interest from local retail and institutional investors, particularly given the refinery’s strategic importance to Nigeria’s energy sector. For the Nigerian capital market, the listing could materially increase market depth and liquidity while providing investors with direct exposure to one of the country’s largest industrial assets. However, investors are likely to pay close attention to the refinery’s valuation, crude supply costs and ability to sustain strong margins as it scales production.
Money Market
https://www.digital.zenithbank.com/ZEQ/ZEQ-jan-2026/index.html#p=1System liquidity saw a marginal increase throughout the trading week, opening at ₦4.64 trillion on Monday driven by primary market repayment and closing at ₦4.65 trillion. Week-on-week, the Nigerian Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) held steady to close at 22.00%, while the Overnight (OVN) rates declined by 8bps to close at 22.13%.
We expect rate to continue to hover around this level.
Treasury Bills Market
The Treasury Bills market traded on a bullish note this week, supported by strong demand and declining stop rates. The week began with buying interest across the curve, particularly on the 26-Aug bill, before activity moderated as market participants positioned ahead of the NTB auction. As the week progressed, the CBN conducted an OMO auction, offering 1trn across various tenors. The auction recorded ₦5.49trn in subscriptions, while the CBN allotted ₦2.87trn. Stop rates continued their downward trend with the 97-d closing at 19.59%, while the 147-d and 154-d closed at 18.99%. The NTB auction also recorded strong demand, as total subscriptions came in at ₦3.34trn, while the DMO allotted ₦865.71bn. Stop rates on the 91-day and 182-day held steady to close at 16.30% and 16.50%, respectively, while the 364-day declined by 31bps to 16.84%. Following the auction, unmet bids filtered into the secondary market, which supported demand for the newly issued 2-Sept bill, which closed the week with trades consummated at 16.55%. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 18bps to close at 18.75%.
Looking ahead, we expect a cautious session as market participants shift their attention to the upcoming NTB auction.
FGN Bond Market
The FGN Bond market traded on a bullish note this week, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions and sustained demand across the curve. The week began with mild buying interest, as the 2037 and 2038 maturities were initially quoted at 17.30%/17.10% and 17.40%/17.25%, respectively, before repricing lower. On the data front, Nigeria’s Q2 GDP growth of 4.40%y/y helped reinforce confidence in the economic outlook. The bullish sentiment continued as lower OMO stop rates encouraged further demand. Following the NTB auction, where the 364-day stop rate declined by 31bps to 16.84%, activity picked up further as continued buying interest drove offers below 17% levels. By week-end, strong demand pushed yields lower on the mid-to-long end of the curve, with the 2035 maturity seen executed at 16.75%. This demand also filtered into off-the-run maturities, where trades on the 2033 and 2034 papers were consummated at 16.72% and 16.70%, respectively. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 15bps to close at 16.49%.
We expect the bullish sentiment to persist, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions and continued demand for longer-dated bonds.
FGN Eurobond Market
The Eurobond market traded on a mixed note this week, with sentiment driven by renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and expectations around the Fed’s September policy decision. The week started on a negative note following renewed military exchanges between the U.S. and Iran, while hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced expectations for a September rate hike. Sentiment remained weak as President Donald Trump threatened further strikes against Iran following the first direct exchange of attacks in a month. However, softer-than-expected ADP employment data which came in at 38k vs 47k forecast eased concerns around the strength of the labour market and supported a recovery in the market. This positive tone was further supported by Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s comments who favoured a rate hold in September if inflation continues to moderate, driving rate-hike expectations lower. By week-end, the stronger-than-expected NFP data of 163k vs 56k forecast reversed some of the dovish repricing and weighed on sentiment. Week-on-Week, the average benchmark yield declined by 1bp to close at 6.85%.
We expect market direction to be driven by evolving geopolitical developments, PPI and CPI data.
Currency Market
The value of the Naira to the dollar appreciated by 1.20% week on week to close at ₦1,321.21/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).
Equities Market
The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) increasing by 0.25% to close at 246,992.4 points while market capitalisation also increased to close at N159.60 trillion. Market breadth was negative at 0.90x. Trading activity was active on the day, with the volume of shares traded increasing significantly by 370.10% to 2.00 billion units, while total value of shares traded increased by 19.24% to ₦34.90 billion.
Reflecting the week’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index appreciated by 2.36%, as gains in ROYALEX (+25.00%), CHAMPION (+20.10%), and NB (+18.80%) were offset by declines in BETAGLAS (-17.38%), NASCON (-15.90%), and REDSTAREX (-13.62%).
Overall, the NGX has posted a year-to-date gain of 58.72%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (0.29%; 3.46% 1WK; 60.02% YTD), NGX Banking Index (0.44%; 6.15% 1WK; 73.90% YTD), NGX Oil & Gas Index (1.12%; 14.34% 1WK; +111.86% YTD), and NGX Insurance Index (-1.05%; 4.70% 1WK; -5.74% YTD).
