Nigeria announced the partial resumption of operations at its Warri oil refinery, marking progress in its efforts to revitalize the nation’s ailing refining sector after nearly a decade of shutdowns. The 125,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) refinery, inactive since 2015 due to disrepair and crude shortages, is now running at 60% capacity, according to NNPC Boss, Mele Kyari. This development follows years of neglect, damage, and allegations of mismanagement that have left Africa’s largest crude exporter heavily reliant on fuel imports. Alongside Warri, Nigeria has four state-owned refineries with a combined capacity of 445,000 bpd, including the 60,000 bpd Port Harcourt refinery, which NNPC revived last month. The government aims to restore full functionality across all facilities this year, complementing the privately-owned 650,000 bpd Dangote refinery in Lagos, which began operations earlier in 2025. These efforts underscore Nigeria’s commitment to reducing dependence on fuel imports and bolstering domestic refining capacity.
Money Market
Market liquidity opened the day at ₦871.20 billion long. The Open Buy Back (OBB) rate and the Overnight (OVN) rate closed at 26.75% and 27.25%, respectively.
We expect rates to hover around current levels.
Treasury Bills Market
The FGN Treasury Bills market opened the year quietly but gained momentum with improved demand, particularly at the longer end of the NTB curve. Notable activity included bids for the 25 Dec NTB at 22.40% and the 30 Dec OMO Bill at 23.60%, while the December 2025 papers saw the highest trading volumes, closing at an average yield of 22.10%. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 11bps to 25.57%
We expect a similar session.
FGN Bond Market
The FGN Bonds market witnessed subdued activity this week, marked by weak sentiment that dampened trading across the board. Minimal trades were consummated due to wide bid-offer spreads, leaving the benchmark yield curve largely unchanged. Key observations included the 31s offered at 21.95% with limited bids, the 34s quoted at 20.90/20.60, and the 33s at 21.40/21.00, highlighting the overall lackluster market performance. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield appreciated by 4bps to 19.19%
We expect similar sentiments.
FGN Eurobond Market
The FGN Eurobonds market started the year on a bullish note, with positive sentiment sustained throughout the week. Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, including Initial Jobless Claims at 211K (vs. 221K forecast) and an increase in ISM Manufacturing PMI to 49.3 (from 48.4 in November), supported market optimism. Additionally, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, coming in at 49.4 (vs. 48.3 forecast). Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 19bps to 9.32%
We expect a similar session.
Currency Market
The value of the Naira to the dollar declined by 25bps to close at ₦1534.56/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).
Equities Market
The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) appreciating by 39bps to close at 103,586.33. Market capitalization also increased, closing at ₦63.18 trillion. Market breadth was positive at 6.6x, with 66 advancers and 10 decliners. This performance was driven by gains in NCR (+10.00%), LEARNAFR (+10.00%) and ABBEYBDS (+10.00%), and losses in TOTAL (-9.74%), CWG (-6.04%), and THOMASWY (-5.26%).
Trading activity was mixed on the day, with the volume of shares traded decreasing by 15% to 709.29 million units, while the total value of shares traded increased by 45% to ₦8.24 billion. The most actively traded stocks by volume were CHAMS with 58.07 million units, VERITASK with 55.14 million units, and ABBEYBDS with 50.11 million units. In terms of value, FBNH led with ₦492.64 million, followed by OANDO at ₦472.53 million, and ACCESS at ₦465.99 million.
Reflecting the day’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index reflected a 1-week gain of 1.37%, with an overall year-to-date gain of 0.64%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (+0.25%; 1.08% 1WK; +0.33% YTD), NGX Banking Index (+1.08%; -0.61% 1WK; 1.35% YTD), and NGX Oil & Gas Index (0.49%; -0.66% 1WK; -0.52% YTD).
