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  • Inflation Drops to 15.10% as Food Prices Fall Sharply; Treasury Yields Ease and Naira Strengthens

    Inflation Drops to 15.10% as Food Prices Fall Sharply; Treasury Yields Ease and Naira Strengthens

    Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased further to 15.10% in January 2026, down slightly from 15.15% in December 2025, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics. On a year-on-year basis, inflation fell sharply by 12.51 percentage points from 27.61% recorded in January 2025, highlighting a significant slowdown compared to last year’s elevated levels.

    On a month-on-month basis, prices contracted by 2.88% in January, a notable reversal from the 0.54% increase in December, indicating that the general price level declined relative to the previous month. However, broader underlying pressures remain visible, as the twelve-month average inflation rate stood at 21.97%, higher than the corresponding period a year earlier. Year-on-year food inflation dropped to 8.89% from 29.63% in January 2025, while month-on-month food prices fell sharply by 6.02%.

    The decline was attributed to lower prices of key staples such as yam, eggs, grains, beans, palm oil, beef, and cassava. Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, moderated to 17.72% year on year, down from 25.27% in January 2025, while month-on-month core prices declined by 1.69%. Urban and rural inflation rates both followed a similar downward trajectory, with urban inflation at 15.36% and rural inflation at 14.44% year on year. 

    Money Market

    System liquidity saw a decreasing trend throughout the trading week, opening at ₦4.32 trillion on Monday and closing at ₦2.16 trillion. Week-on-week, the Open Buy Back (OBB) remained flat at 22.50%, while the Overnight (OVN) rates decreased by 7 bps to close at 22.71%.

    We expect rate to continue to hover around this level.

    Treasury Bills Market: The Treasury Bills market began the week on a quiet note following the CBN’s announcement of an OMO auction, where ₦600bn was offered across the 8-day and 99-day maturities, attracting robust subscriptions of ₦2.04trn with ₦1.35trn eventually allotted at stop rates of 22.39% and 19.48%, respectively. Subsequent OMO activity saw ₦600bn offered across the 7-day and 105-day tenors, with ₦2.30trn sold at 19.44% for the 105-day paper, while the NTB auction recorded strong demand of ₦4.28trn, out of which ₦1.91trn was allotted as stop rates on the 91-day and 364-day bills declined to 15.80% and 15.90%, respectively. In the secondary market, sustained interest in the newly issued 1-year NTB supported trades around the 15.75/15.60% levels midweek, although the market closed the week on a relatively calm but mildly bearish note as offers outweighed bids on the 18 Feb 2027 bill, with trades averaging 15.70%. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield decreased by 20 bps to close at 17.42 %.
    We expect a calm start to the week as market participants assess the outcome of the FGN bond auction and digest the MPC’s decision.

    FGN Bond Market: The FGN Bonds market opened the week on a calm note, with improved sentiment observed as buying interest emerged in the 2034 and 2035 maturities, with trades consummated on the latter at 16.35%, supported by a marginal decline in January inflation to 15.10% from 15.15%. Activity remained largely subdued through midweek, as market participants adopted a cautious stance ahead of NTB auction results, although intermittent demand on the 2035 maturity saw it quoted around 16.45/16.20%. Toward the end of the week, the market maintained its quiet bias ahead of the upcoming auction, with selective buying interest observed along the belly of the curve, particularly on the 2032 and 2034 maturities which traded at 16.15% and 16.10%, respectively. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield decreased by 7 bps to close at 15.92%.
    We expect an active week as investors react to the bond auction results and the MPC decision.

    FGN Eurobond Market: The Eurobond market traded on a calm note at the start of the week amid subdued volumes due to the U.S. bank holiday in observance of Presidents’ Day, with modest buying interest supporting a slight decline in yields. Sentiment remained largely muted through midweek as investors positioned ahead of the Fed meeting minutes, with the average benchmark yield compressing to 6.83% before reversing course on Thursday as the market digested the minutes. By Friday, the market adopted a bearish tone as participants awaited key PCE and GDP releases; PCE printed at 2.9% above the 2.8% forecast, while GDP came in weaker at 1.4% versus expectations of 2.8% and a previous reading of 4.4%, further compounded by risk-off sentiment following the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on tariff measures, which prompted external selling pressure across the curve. Week-on-Week, the average benchmark yield decreased by 11 bps to close at 6.84%. 
    We look forward to the release of PPI, unemployment claims data, and more updates on the Trump tariff saga.

    Currency Market

    The value of the Naira to the dollar appreciated by 0.67% week on week to close at ₦1,346.32/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).

    Equities Market
     The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) appreciating by 0.99% to close at 194,989.77. Market capitalization also appreciated, closing at 125.16 trillion. Market breadth was positive at 2.30x. Trading activity was robust on the day, with the volume of shares traded decreasing by 9% to 820.45 million units, while total value of shares traded decreased by 26% to ₦28.27 billion.

    Reflecting the week’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index recorded a 6.95% appreciation, as gains in ZICHIS (+60.74%), JAPAULGOLD (+60.16%) and INFINITY (+59.09%) were offset by declines in RTBRISCOE (-20.78%), MECURE (-18.99%), and TRIPPLEG (-18.80%). 

    Overall, the NGX has posted a year-to-date gain of 25.30%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (+0.86%; +9.22% 1WK; +24.37% YTD), NGX Banking Index (+1.43%; +8.31% 1WK; +23.93% YTD), NGX Oil & Gas Index (+0.05%; +10.88% 1WK; +52.73% YTD), and NGX Insurance Index (+2.52%; +5.49% 1WK; +15.06% YTD). 

  • Nigeria Misses OPEC Output Target as Crude Production Averages 1.46mbpd in 10 Months, Markets Trade Mixed Across Assets

    Nigeria Misses OPEC Output Target as Crude Production Averages 1.46mbpd in 10 Months, Markets Trade Mixed Across Assets

    Nigeria produced 443.25 million barrels of crude oil between January and October 2025, averaging about 1.46 million barrels per day, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). This output was below Nigeria’s 1.5 mbpd OPEC quota, achieving roughly 97% compliance over the period. January recorded the highest production, while February was the weakest. Although output recovered mid-year, crude production eased again toward August and September, with October output at 43.44 million barrels. Including condensates, total oil production reached 503.79 million barrels, or about 1.66 mbpd, still falling short of the Federal Government’s 2025 budget benchmark of over 2.0 mbpd.

    The shortfall of about 340,000 barrels per day highlights persistent structural challenges such as security issues, crude theft, and infrastructure constraints, despite condensates providing some support to headline output. This gap has implications for fiscal revenues and foreign exchange earnings, especially as oil remains a key source of government funding. While officials have reiterated ambitions to raise production to as high as 3.0 mbpd, actual output remains well below target. Looking ahead, the government has adopted more conservative assumptions for 2026, projecting lower oil revenue based on moderated price and production estimates, even as the new NUPRC leadership pledges to boost investment and reposition the upstream sector for growth.

    Money Market

    System liquidity saw an increasing trend throughout the trading week, opening at ₦3.29 trillion on Wednesday and closing at ₦3.36 trillion. Week-on-week, the Open Buy Back (OBB) was flat to close at 22.50%, while the Overnight (OVN) rates increased by 8bps to close at 22.83%.

    We expect rate to continue to hover around this level.

    Treasury Bills Market– The Treasury Bills market recorded mixed but generally constructive trading over the period, beginning on an active note with strong demand concentrated at the long end of the curve, where the 17 December bill traded around 16.90%–16.70%. Activity moderated following the CBN’s OMO auction, which saw ₦600bn offered across the 168-day and 210-day tenors, attracting robust ₦1.33trn in subscriptions with ₦1.27trn allotted, while the 210-day stop rate edged slightly lower to 19.41%, reinforcing demand conditions. Buying interest persisted on the 17 December NTB, which tightened further to 16.70%–16.40%. As the year drew to a close, market activity thinned amid book-closing, resulting in a quiet session; however, the new year opened on a calm note with renewed demand resurfacing on the 17 December bill at 16.40%. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield decreased by 14bps to close at 17.67%.


    We expect activity to pick up in the near term as investors position ahead of the Q1 auction calendar.

    FGN Bond Market–  The FGN Bonds market traded mixed through the week, beginning on a quiet note as investors positioned ahead of the bond auction, where the DMO offered ₦460bn across the 2030 and 2032 maturities, attracting ₦657.26bn in subscriptions and allotting ₦583.52bn, with stop rates rising to 15.90% and 16.00% respectively, while the 2032s traded firmer in the secondary market at 15.85%/15.50%. Sentiment remained cautious the following day as investors digested the auction results and awaited the MPC decision, which saw the Committee hold the MPR at 27.50% while widening the asymmetric corridor to +50/-450 bps, prompting the 2032s to retrace from 16.15%/15.85% to 15.95%/15.80%. Midweek activity picked up as market participants responded to the MPC outcome, with the 2032s closing slightly wider at 16.00%/15.80%, before steady interest across the mid-curve kept them quoted around 15.98%/15.80%. The market closed the week on a mildly bearish note, with the on-the-run 2032s seen at 15.95%/15.85%. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield edged higher by 14bps to close at 15.50%.
    We expect this muted trend to persist in the near term, barring any significant catalyst.

    FGN Eurobond Market– The Eurobond market remained largely flattish throughout the period, as subdued participation and thin liquidity amid the holiday season limited price action across the curve. In the absence of major catalysts, yields were mostly stable, with the average benchmark yield edging lower by 2bps day-on-day to close at 6.99%. On the macro front, U.S. unemployment claims printed at 199k, below the 219k forecast, providing mild support to sentiment, although this failed to trigger any meaningful repricing. Week-on-Week, the average benchmark yield remained unchanged at 7.01%. 
    We look ahead to key U.S. data releases including ISM, JOLTS, ADP and NFP to provide clearer direction for the market.

    Currency Market– The value of the Naira to the dollar appreciated by 0.87% week on week ‘to close at ₦1430.85/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).

    Equities Market– The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) appreciating by 0.57% to close at 156,492.40. Market capitalization also appreciated, closing at 99.94 trillion. Market breadth was positive at 5.30x. Trading activity was robust on the day, with the volume of shares traded decreasing by 64% to 439.92 million units, while total value of shares traded decreased by 29% to ₦24.95 billion.

    Reflecting the week’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index recorded a 2.05% appreciation, as gains in AUSTINLAZ (+45.94%), ALEX (+45.57%) and EUNISELL (+43.26%) were offset by declines in ETRANZACT (-9.92%), FIRSTHOLDCO (-7.92%), and LIVINGTRUST(-7.61%).  

    Overall, the NGX has posted a year-to-date gain of 0.57%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (+0.52%; +1.93% 1WK; +0.52% YTD), NGX Banking Index (+2.32%; +4.74% 1WK; 2.32% YTD), NGX Oil & Gas Index (+1.38%; +1.18%1WK; +1.38% YTD), and NGX Insurance Index (+2.07%; +4.96% 1WK; +2.07% YTD). 

  • Nigeria’s Tax Overhaul: House Passes Key Bills Amidst Market Fluctuations

    Nigeria’s Tax Overhaul: House Passes Key Bills Amidst Market Fluctuations

    Nigeria’s House of Representatives has passed four tax reform bills proposed by President Bola Tinubu, marking a significant step toward overhauling the country’s tax system. However, lawmakers made key adjustments to the original proposals before approval. One major change was the decision to retain the Value-Added Tax (VAT) rate at 7.5%, rejecting the proposal to increase it to 12.5% by 2026. Lawmakers cited concerns about the economic impact of a higher VAT on businesses and consumers. Revenue allocation was also revised. The initial plan to allocate 60% of VAT revenue to high-revenue states faced opposition due to regional equity concerns. Instead, lawmakers capped this at 30%, while the remaining 70% will be distributed equally among all states (50%) and based on population (20%). To ease the tax burden on low-income earners, the reforms exempt minimum wage earners from income tax. Additionally, the minimum tax threshold for domestic businesses has been raised to ₦50 billion ($32.66 million), ensuring that only larger companies bear the tax burden. In the oil sector, the existing 85% petroleum profit tax has been replaced with a 30% corporate tax rate on gains from oil operations, aligning it with standard corporate taxation. Meanwhile, a global minimum tax has been introduced for multinational companies with annual turnovers of at least $970.8 million to curb tax avoidance. The bills are now awaiting Senate approval and President Tinubu’s assent. These reforms are part of broader efforts to boost Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio, which remains low at 10.8%, and reduce dependence on borrowing to fund government spending.

    Money Market

    System liquidity opened the session at ₦956.15 billion short, following OMO auction settlement outflow. The Open Buy Back (OBB) and the Overnight (OVN) closed the day at 32.40% and 32.80%, respectively.

    FGN Treasury Bills Market

    The FGN Treasury Bills Market started off the week on a bearish note with improved offers seen across the curve. We saw trades consummated on the 22 Jan NTB as high as 18.50% and 19.40% on long end OMO bills. The 5 Mar NTB was seen bid at 18.05% while offers stood at 17.85%. At the PMA this week, the DMO floated N550bn across the standard maturities. At the auction, the DMO sold 678.75bn out of a 1.27 trillion subscription. Stop rate on the 91-day bill remained unchanged while the 182-day and 364-day bill rose by 4bps and 57bps to 17.79% and 18.39%, respectively. The newly issued 364 day bill was seen at 18.30/18.20. Furthermore, the DMO revised the Q1 issuance calendar, featuring another auction 19 March with N800bn on offer. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 4bps to close at 18.89%.

    We expect cautious sentiment.

    FGN Bond Market

    The FGN Bonds Market traded in tandem with the bills market. Quotes were seen on the 31s at 19.40/19.20 and the 29s at 19.35/19.00. On the long end of the curve, the 2050 maturity was seen bid at 17.00% and offered at 16.50%. The 2035 bond was also offered at 18.60% with few bids to match. Following the release of the calendar, bearish sentiments intensified with trades consummated on the 2031 maturity as high as 19.55%. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield increased by 3bps to close at 18.42%.

    We expect a similar market trend.

    FGN Eurobond Market

    The FGN Eurobonds Market sustained the bearish momentum this week as Trump tariffs, global uncertainty and U.S economic slowdown fears dominated sentiments. It was a data filled week. The JOLTS Job Openings data printed at 7.74M vs 7.56M forecast and 7.60M previous. The U.S CPI declined to 2.8% against 2.9% forecast and 3.0% previous while the U.S PPI m/m printed at 0.0% vs 0.3% forecast and 0.4% previous. Week-on-Week, the average benchmark yield increased by 13bps to 9.16%.

    We expect the outcome of the FOMC meeting to dictate market direction.

    Currency Market

    The value of the Naira to the dollar declined by 5bps to close at ₦1517.93/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).

    Equities Market

    The local bourse ended the week with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) declining by 21bps to close at 105,955.13. Market capitalization also decreased, closing at ₦66.36 trillion. Market breadth was negative at 0.88x, with 21 advancers and 24 decliners. This performance was driven by gains in ROYALEX (+10.00%), LINKASSURE (+9.57%) and GUINEAINS (+9.52%), and losses in TANTALIZER (-9.85%), JAIZBANK (-9.72%), and NEIMETH (-9.45%).

    Trading activity was mixed on the day, with the volume of shares traded increasing by 119.65% to 749.63 million units, while the total value of shares traded decreased by 33.71% to ₦11.04 billion. The most actively traded stocks by volume were CHAMPION with 350.37 million units, TANTALIZER with 53.07 million units, and CUSTODIAN with 51.11 million units. In terms of value, ARADEL led with ₦1.82 billion, followed by CHAMPION at ₦1.40 billion, and MTNN at ₦1.27 billion.

    Reflecting the day’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index reflected a 1-week loss of -0.51% with an overall year-to-date gain of 2.98%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (-0.18%; -0.39% 1WK; 3.06% YTD), NGX Banking Index (0.19%; -0.45% 1WK; 3.93% YTD), NGX Oil & Gas Index (-0.18%; -1.15% 1WK; -6.81% YTD), and NGX Insurance Index (0.50%; 0.89% 1WK; -1.95% YTD).

  • Nigeria Surpasses OPEC Crude Production Quota in January 2025

    Nigeria Surpasses OPEC Crude Production Quota in January 2025

    Nigeria met the OPEC crude production quota in January 2025, as regulatory data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that average daily crude output reached 1,538,697 barrels—surpassing the 1.5 million barrels per day target. Overall production, including condensate, averaged 1.74 million barrels per day in January, up from 1.6 million barrels in December 2024, though still below the 2 million barrels per day goal for the year. This achievement marks a significant turnaround after years of falling short due to crude theft and pipeline vandalism, and it signals that recent government efforts to ramp up production are bearing fruit. Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Heineken Lokpobiri, expressed confidence that Nigeria could further boost output to 3 million barrels per day this year by optimizing the separation of condensate from crude oil.

    Money Market 

    Market liquidity opened the day at ₦1.71 trillion short. The Open Buy Back (OBB) rate and the Overnight (OVN) rate closed at 32.42% and 32.75%, respectively. 

    FGN Treasury Bills Market

    The FGN Treasury Bills witnessed an active session this week. We saw trades consummated on the newly issued 364-day bill at 19.10% levels at the onset. Furthermore, the DEC NTB was largely bid while offers remained scarce. The JAN OMO bills also garnered some attention with offers at 19.80% handle. During the week, CBN issued an OMO auction notice for tomorrow, floating 600bn across the long end. The FGN Treasury Bills Market traded on a calm note as investors shifted focus to the OMO auction where the CBN floated N600bn across the long end. At the auction, the CBN sold N1.40 trillion across the standard tenors out of a total subscription of N1.92 trillion. Stop rates closed at 21.3249% and 21.45%, representing a 117bps and 120bps decline from previous auction levels. Sequel to the auction, we saw the newly issued 10 Feb OMO bill trade at 20.45% and retrace to 20.60% at the close of the week. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 40bps to 22.06%

    We expect a calm session ahead of the PMA slated for Wednesday.



    FGN Bond Market

    The FGN Bonds Market traded on a mildly active note with trades consummated on the 28s and 35s at 20.40% and 21.60%, respectively. The 2042 bond was seen bid at 18.80% and offered at 18.40%. The 37s was also seen quoted 19.30/18.30, with little to no trades consummated due to the wide bid-ask spread. Furthermore, the 2035 exchanged hands at 21.55% while bids were seen on the 19.30% 2029 bond at 20.75% handle. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 22bps to 19.74%

    We expect a cautious approach ahead of the MPC meeting.



    FGN Eurobond Market

    The bears dominated at the start of the week in the FGN Eurobonds market. However, bullish sentiments ensued despite an uptick in U.S CPI print with YoY at 3.0% from 2.9% previous and forecast. The rally was sustained after Powell’s reinforcement of the Fed’s policy remaining restrictive and a hotter than expected PPI data (3.5% vs 3.2% forecast and 3.3% prev). Further data from the U.S showed a 0.9% decline in Jan. Retail sales, the largest drop in nearly tow years, in contrast to a 0.2% decline expected and a 0.7% growth previously recorded. Ultimately, the bulls prevailed at the close of the week. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 24bps to 8.85%

    We expect a calm session following the President’s Day U.S Holiday.



    Currency Market

    The value of the Naira to the dollar declined by 62bps to close at ₦1509.70/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window.

    Equities Market

    The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) declined by 1.02% to close at 108,053.95. Market capitalization also decreased, closing at ₦67.43 trillion. The market breadth was positive at 1.41x, with 38 advancers and 27 decliners. This performance was driven by gains in ROYALEX (+10.00%), UPDC (+9.88%) and TIP (+9.76%), and losses in BUAFOODS (-10.00%), DAARCOMM (-9.09%), and ARADEL (-6.90%).  

    Trading activity was robust on the day, with the volume of shares traded increasing by 12.91% to 477.17 million units, while the total value of shares traded increased by 51.53% to ₦13.88 billion. The most actively traded stocks by volume were STERLINGNG with 88.61 million units, ACCESSCORP with 29.71 million units, and VERITASKAP with 21.61 million units. In terms of value, DANGCEM led with ₦2.44 billion, followed by SEPLAT at ₦1.81 billion, and PRESCO at ₦1.11 billion

  • Naira Faces Slight Decline as Equities Market Experiences Mixed Trends

    Naira Faces Slight Decline as Equities Market Experiences Mixed Trends

    The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) hosted a workshop on January 9, 2025, focusing on the rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP and CPI to ensure accurate reflection of the nation’s evolving economic structure. NESG CEO Dr. Tayo Aduloju emphasized that accurate data enhances credibility, attracts investors, and supports effective policymaking by identifying growth and intervention areas. NBS Statistician-General Prince Adeyemi Adeniran highlighted the importance of rebasing to incorporate new industries and consumption patterns, ensuring indicators align with current realities. Experts, including Dr. Olusegun Omisakin and NBS analysts, detailed the technical framework, with 2019 and 2024 chosen as base years for GDP and CPI, respectively. The workshop facilitated feedback, underscoring the importance of collaboration between public and private sectors to strengthen statistical integrity and foster data-driven policies for sustainable growth.

    Money Market 

    Market liquidity opened the day at ₦346.96 billion long. The Open Buy Back (OBB) rate and the Overnight (OVN) rate closed at 27.29% and 27.86%, respectively. 

    We expect rates to hover around current levels.



    Treasury Bills Market

    The FGN Treasury Bills Market traded on a mildly active note this week with activity skewed to the Dec and April Maturities. This week featured two auctions. At the OMO auction, the CBN offered and sold N500bn out of a N1.56 trillion subscription. Stop rates closed at 23.81% and 23.84% compared to 23.93% and 23.95% previously. At the NTB auction, the DMO offered and sold N515bn against a total subscription of N1.52 trillion. Stop rates remained unchanged on the 91-day and 182-day at 18.00% and 18.50% while the 364-day bill dipped by 28bps to 22.622%. Sequel to the auction, we saw trades consummated on the newly issued 364-day NTB at 22.00%. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 30bps to 25.27%

    We expect a similar session.



    FGN Bond Market

    The FGN Bonds Market witnessed a calm session with offers seen on the 19.89% 2033 bond at 21.00% while there were no bids to match. On the other hand, the 2038 maturity was bid at 19.35% with no offers in sight. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield appreciated by 8bps to 19.27%

    We expect bond appetite to remain weak.



    FGN Eurobond Market

    The FGN Eurobonds Market traded on mixed sentiments this week. The FGN Eurobonds Market started off on a bullish note. However, as the session came to a close, bearish sentiments ensued following the JOLTS Job Opening data at 8.10M vs 7.74M forecast and 7.74M prev, and ISM Services PMI at 54.1 vs 53.5 forecast and 52.1 prev. The selling pressure further intensified following the ADP Non-farm employment change which printed at 122K vs 140K forecast and 146K previous and the initial jobless claims at 201K vs 215K forecast and 211K previous. Further data from the United States showed the Nonfarm Payroll report at 256K vs 165K forecast and 227K previous while unemployment rate declined to 4.1% from 4.2%. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield appreciated by 3bps to 9.35%

    We expect the bearish sentiments to persist.



    Currency Market

    The value of the Naira to the dollar declined by 49bps to close at ₦1542.03/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market 

    Equities Market

    The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) declining by 8bps to close at 105,451.06. Market capitalization also decreased, closing at ₦64.32 trillion. Market breadth was positive at 1.24x, with 31 advancers and 25 decliners. This performance was driven by gains in CILEASING (+10.00%), HONYFLOUR (+9.99%) and TRANSEXPR (+9.89%), and losses in SUNUASSUR (-10.00%), EUNISELL (-9.96%), and SKYAVN (-9.87%).  

    Trading activity was robust on the day, with the volume of shares traded increasing by 4.52% to 511.26 million units, while the total value of shares traded decreased by 26.01% to ₦9.67 billion. The most actively traded stocks by volume were TANTALIZER with 52.96 million units, UNIVINSURE with 34.80 million units, and ACCESS with 33.97 million units. In terms of value, NAHCO led with ₦961.87 million, followed by NB at ₦873.28 million, and ZENITH at ₦844.17 million. 

    Reflecting the day’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index reflected a 1-week gain of 2.20% with an overall year-to-date gain of 2.45%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (-0.07%; +2.38% 1WK; +2.53% YTD), NGX Banking Index (-0.41%; +3.03% 1WK; 3.31% YTD), NGX Oil & Gas Index (-0.08%; -0.83% 1WK; +-0.86% YTD), and NGX Insurance Index (-1.53%; +0.35% 1WK; 9.60% YTD).

  • President Tinubu Unveils N47.90 Trillion 2025 Budget, Focused on Economic Stability, Infrastructure, and Job Creation

    President Tinubu Unveils N47.90 Trillion 2025 Budget, Focused on Economic Stability, Infrastructure, and Job Creation

    President Bola Ahmed Tinubu presented the 2025 Budget of Restoration, themed “Securing Peace, Rebuilding Prosperity,” to a unified and supportive National Assembly. The N47.90 trillion budget focuses on stabilizing the economy, enhancing infrastructure, healthcare, and education, and fostering job creation while addressing security challenges. Tinubu highlighted key achievements, such as a 3.46% GDP growth in Q3 2024 and foreign reserves nearing $42 billion, emphasizing ongoing reforms and fiscal discipline. Lawmakers reaffirmed their support during the presentation, underscoring collaboration between the executive and legislature to ensure the successful implementation of the administration’s Renewed Hope Agenda.

    Money Market 

    Market liquidity opened the day at ₦377.50 billion short. The Open Buy Back (OBB) rate and the Overnight (OVN) rate closed at 31.79% and 32.33%, respectively. 

    We expect rates to hover around current levels.



    Treasury Bills Market

    The FGN Treasury Bills Market experienced a predominantly bearish and subdued week, with investors focusing on cherry-picking high yields across the curve. Notable activities included trades on the 11 Dec NTB at 22.65%-22.80% and the 9 Dec OMO at 23.70%-24.15%. Mild activity was observed on the 20 Feb NTB, offered at 24.25% with limited bids. Overall, attention largely shifted toward OMO bills, reflecting investors’ search for attractive yields. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield appreciated by 1bp to 25.63%

    We expect a calm session as liquidity remains tight.



    FGN Bond Market

    The FGN Bonds Market traded quietly throughout the week, with limited activity across the curve as market appetite remained weak. Attention shifted to the bond auction, where the DMO allotted N211.15 billion against an offer of N120 billion, with total subscriptions reaching N278.82 billion. The stop rate on the 29s rose by 14bps to 21.14%, while the rate on the 31s held steady at 22.00%. Minimal trading was observed, with bids on the 29s at 21.15% and the 31s hovering around 22.00-22.05%, reflecting subdued market participation. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield appreciated by 6bps to 19.14%

    We expect a quiet session as focus shifts to the bond auction.



    FGN Eurobond Market

    The FGN Eurobonds Market experienced a mix of bullish and bearish sentiments throughout the week, driven by global economic data and Federal Reserve actions. Bullish trading was observed early on as traders anticipated rate cuts, which were confirmed mid-week with a 25bps reduction by the Fed. However, bearish sentiment dominated later sessions, fueled by the Fed Chair’s cautious outlook on further easing, strong U.S. job and GDP data, and continued sell-offs in SSA Eurobonds. Additionally, PMI data highlighted mixed economic signals, with manufacturing contracting but services expanding significantly. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield appreciated by 29bps to 9.49%

    We expect a similar session.



    Currency Market

    The value of the Naira to the dollar appreciated by 20bps to close at ₦1536.93/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).

    Equities Market

    The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) declining by 12bps to close at 101,129.09. Market capitalization also decreased, closing at ₦61.31 trillion. Market breadth was positive at 2.79x, with 39 advancers and 14 decliners. This performance was driven by gains in HONYFLOUR (+10.00%), UACN (+10.00%) and UNIVINSURE (+10.00%), and losses in MULTIVERSE (-9.80%), ARADEL (-9.09%), and INTENEGINS (-8.13%).  

    Trading activity was mixed on the day, with the volume of shares traded increasing by 26.69% to 506.90 million units, while the total value of shares traded decreased by 7.03% to ₦15.86 billion. The most actively traded stocks by volume were ZENITH with 60.41 million units, UBA with 43.45 million units, and STERLING with 43.32 million units. In terms of value, ZENITH led with ₦2.73 billion, followed by SEPLAT at ₦2.15 billion, and ARADEL ₦1.99 billion. 

    Reflecting the day’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index reflected a 1-week gain of 2.40% and a 4-week gain of 3.22%, with an overall year-to-date gain of 35.25%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (+0.18%; +0.63% 1WK; +33.61% YTD), NGX Banking Index (+1.66%; +3.88% 1WK; 19.70% YTD), and NGX Oil & Gas Index (0.31%; +0.99% 1WK; +160.12% YTD).