Nigeria produced 443.25 million barrels of crude oil between January and October 2025, averaging about 1.46 million barrels per day, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). This output was below Nigeria’s 1.5 mbpd OPEC quota, achieving roughly 97% compliance over the period. January recorded the highest production, while February was the weakest. Although output recovered mid-year, crude production eased again toward August and September, with October output at 43.44 million barrels. Including condensates, total oil production reached 503.79 million barrels, or about 1.66 mbpd, still falling short of the Federal Government’s 2025 budget benchmark of over 2.0 mbpd.
The shortfall of about 340,000 barrels per day highlights persistent structural challenges such as security issues, crude theft, and infrastructure constraints, despite condensates providing some support to headline output. This gap has implications for fiscal revenues and foreign exchange earnings, especially as oil remains a key source of government funding. While officials have reiterated ambitions to raise production to as high as 3.0 mbpd, actual output remains well below target. Looking ahead, the government has adopted more conservative assumptions for 2026, projecting lower oil revenue based on moderated price and production estimates, even as the new NUPRC leadership pledges to boost investment and reposition the upstream sector for growth.
Money Market
System liquidity saw an increasing trend throughout the trading week, opening at ₦3.29 trillion on Wednesday and closing at ₦3.36 trillion. Week-on-week, the Open Buy Back (OBB) was flat to close at 22.50%, while the Overnight (OVN) rates increased by 8bps to close at 22.83%.
We expect rate to continue to hover around this level.
Treasury Bills Market– The Treasury Bills market recorded mixed but generally constructive trading over the period, beginning on an active note with strong demand concentrated at the long end of the curve, where the 17 December bill traded around 16.90%–16.70%. Activity moderated following the CBN’s OMO auction, which saw ₦600bn offered across the 168-day and 210-day tenors, attracting robust ₦1.33trn in subscriptions with ₦1.27trn allotted, while the 210-day stop rate edged slightly lower to 19.41%, reinforcing demand conditions. Buying interest persisted on the 17 December NTB, which tightened further to 16.70%–16.40%. As the year drew to a close, market activity thinned amid book-closing, resulting in a quiet session; however, the new year opened on a calm note with renewed demand resurfacing on the 17 December bill at 16.40%. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield decreased by 14bps to close at 17.67%.
We expect activity to pick up in the near term as investors position ahead of the Q1 auction calendar.
FGN Bond Market– The FGN Bonds market traded mixed through the week, beginning on a quiet note as investors positioned ahead of the bond auction, where the DMO offered ₦460bn across the 2030 and 2032 maturities, attracting ₦657.26bn in subscriptions and allotting ₦583.52bn, with stop rates rising to 15.90% and 16.00% respectively, while the 2032s traded firmer in the secondary market at 15.85%/15.50%. Sentiment remained cautious the following day as investors digested the auction results and awaited the MPC decision, which saw the Committee hold the MPR at 27.50% while widening the asymmetric corridor to +50/-450 bps, prompting the 2032s to retrace from 16.15%/15.85% to 15.95%/15.80%. Midweek activity picked up as market participants responded to the MPC outcome, with the 2032s closing slightly wider at 16.00%/15.80%, before steady interest across the mid-curve kept them quoted around 15.98%/15.80%. The market closed the week on a mildly bearish note, with the on-the-run 2032s seen at 15.95%/15.85%. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield edged higher by 14bps to close at 15.50%.
We expect this muted trend to persist in the near term, barring any significant catalyst.
FGN Eurobond Market– The Eurobond market remained largely flattish throughout the period, as subdued participation and thin liquidity amid the holiday season limited price action across the curve. In the absence of major catalysts, yields were mostly stable, with the average benchmark yield edging lower by 2bps day-on-day to close at 6.99%. On the macro front, U.S. unemployment claims printed at 199k, below the 219k forecast, providing mild support to sentiment, although this failed to trigger any meaningful repricing. Week-on-Week, the average benchmark yield remained unchanged at 7.01%.
We look ahead to key U.S. data releases including ISM, JOLTS, ADP and NFP to provide clearer direction for the market.
Currency Market– The value of the Naira to the dollar appreciated by 0.87% week on week ‘to close at ₦1430.85/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).
Equities Market– The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) appreciating by 0.57% to close at 156,492.40. Market capitalization also appreciated, closing at 99.94 trillion. Market breadth was positive at 5.30x. Trading activity was robust on the day, with the volume of shares traded decreasing by 64% to 439.92 million units, while total value of shares traded decreased by 29% to ₦24.95 billion.
Reflecting the week’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index recorded a 2.05% appreciation, as gains in AUSTINLAZ (+45.94%), ALEX (+45.57%) and EUNISELL (+43.26%) were offset by declines in ETRANZACT (-9.92%), FIRSTHOLDCO (-7.92%), and LIVINGTRUST(-7.61%).
Overall, the NGX has posted a year-to-date gain of 0.57%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (+0.52%; +1.93% 1WK; +0.52% YTD), NGX Banking Index (+2.32%; +4.74% 1WK; 2.32% YTD), NGX Oil & Gas Index (+1.38%; +1.18%1WK; +1.38% YTD), and NGX Insurance Index (+2.07%; +4.96% 1WK; +2.07% YTD).
