Nigeria met the OPEC crude production quota in January 2025, as regulatory data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that average daily crude output reached 1,538,697 barrels—surpassing the 1.5 million barrels per day target. Overall production, including condensate, averaged 1.74 million barrels per day in January, up from 1.6 million barrels in December 2024, though still below the 2 million barrels per day goal for the year. This achievement marks a significant turnaround after years of falling short due to crude theft and pipeline vandalism, and it signals that recent government efforts to ramp up production are bearing fruit. Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Heineken Lokpobiri, expressed confidence that Nigeria could further boost output to 3 million barrels per day this year by optimizing the separation of condensate from crude oil.
Money Market
Market liquidity opened the day at ₦1.71 trillion short. The Open Buy Back (OBB) rate and the Overnight (OVN) rate closed at 32.42% and 32.75%, respectively.
FGN Treasury Bills Market
The FGN Treasury Bills witnessed an active session this week. We saw trades consummated on the newly issued 364-day bill at 19.10% levels at the onset. Furthermore, the DEC NTB was largely bid while offers remained scarce. The JAN OMO bills also garnered some attention with offers at 19.80% handle. During the week, CBN issued an OMO auction notice for tomorrow, floating 600bn across the long end. The FGN Treasury Bills Market traded on a calm note as investors shifted focus to the OMO auction where the CBN floated N600bn across the long end. At the auction, the CBN sold N1.40 trillion across the standard tenors out of a total subscription of N1.92 trillion. Stop rates closed at 21.3249% and 21.45%, representing a 117bps and 120bps decline from previous auction levels. Sequel to the auction, we saw the newly issued 10 Feb OMO bill trade at 20.45% and retrace to 20.60% at the close of the week. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 40bps to 22.06%
We expect a calm session ahead of the PMA slated for Wednesday.
FGN Bond Market
The FGN Bonds Market traded on a mildly active note with trades consummated on the 28s and 35s at 20.40% and 21.60%, respectively. The 2042 bond was seen bid at 18.80% and offered at 18.40%. The 37s was also seen quoted 19.30/18.30, with little to no trades consummated due to the wide bid-ask spread. Furthermore, the 2035 exchanged hands at 21.55% while bids were seen on the 19.30% 2029 bond at 20.75% handle. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 22bps to 19.74%
We expect a cautious approach ahead of the MPC meeting.
FGN Eurobond Market
The bears dominated at the start of the week in the FGN Eurobonds market. However, bullish sentiments ensued despite an uptick in U.S CPI print with YoY at 3.0% from 2.9% previous and forecast. The rally was sustained after Powell’s reinforcement of the Fed’s policy remaining restrictive and a hotter than expected PPI data (3.5% vs 3.2% forecast and 3.3% prev). Further data from the U.S showed a 0.9% decline in Jan. Retail sales, the largest drop in nearly tow years, in contrast to a 0.2% decline expected and a 0.7% growth previously recorded. Ultimately, the bulls prevailed at the close of the week. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 24bps to 8.85%
We expect a calm session following the President’s Day U.S Holiday.
Currency Market
The value of the Naira to the dollar declined by 62bps to close at ₦1509.70/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window.
Equities Market
The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) declined by 1.02% to close at 108,053.95. Market capitalization also decreased, closing at ₦67.43 trillion. The market breadth was positive at 1.41x, with 38 advancers and 27 decliners. This performance was driven by gains in ROYALEX (+10.00%), UPDC (+9.88%) and TIP (+9.76%), and losses in BUAFOODS (-10.00%), DAARCOMM (-9.09%), and ARADEL (-6.90%).
Trading activity was robust on the day, with the volume of shares traded increasing by 12.91% to 477.17 million units, while the total value of shares traded increased by 51.53% to ₦13.88 billion. The most actively traded stocks by volume were STERLINGNG with 88.61 million units, ACCESSCORP with 29.71 million units, and VERITASKAP with 21.61 million units. In terms of value, DANGCEM led with ₦2.44 billion, followed by SEPLAT at ₦1.81 billion, and PRESCO at ₦1.11 billion
