Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased further to 15.10% in January 2026, down slightly from 15.15% in December 2025, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics. On a year-on-year basis, inflation fell sharply by 12.51 percentage points from 27.61% recorded in January 2025, highlighting a significant slowdown compared to last year’s elevated levels.
https://www.digital.zenithbank.com/ZEQ/ZEQ-jan-2026/index.html#p=1On a month-on-month basis, prices contracted by 2.88% in January, a notable reversal from the 0.54% increase in December, indicating that the general price level declined relative to the previous month. However, broader underlying pressures remain visible, as the twelve-month average inflation rate stood at 21.97%, higher than the corresponding period a year earlier. Year-on-year food inflation dropped to 8.89% from 29.63% in January 2025, while month-on-month food prices fell sharply by 6.02%.
The decline was attributed to lower prices of key staples such as yam, eggs, grains, beans, palm oil, beef, and cassava. Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, moderated to 17.72% year on year, down from 25.27% in January 2025, while month-on-month core prices declined by 1.69%. Urban and rural inflation rates both followed a similar downward trajectory, with urban inflation at 15.36% and rural inflation at 14.44% year on year.
Money Market
System liquidity saw a decreasing trend throughout the trading week, opening at ₦4.32 trillion on Monday and closing at ₦2.16 trillion. Week-on-week, the Open Buy Back (OBB) remained flat at 22.50%, while the Overnight (OVN) rates decreased by 7 bps to close at 22.71%.
We expect rate to continue to hover around this level.
Treasury Bills Market: The Treasury Bills market began the week on a quiet note following the CBN’s announcement of an OMO auction, where ₦600bn was offered across the 8-day and 99-day maturities, attracting robust subscriptions of ₦2.04trn with ₦1.35trn eventually allotted at stop rates of 22.39% and 19.48%, respectively. Subsequent OMO activity saw ₦600bn offered across the 7-day and 105-day tenors, with ₦2.30trn sold at 19.44% for the 105-day paper, while the NTB auction recorded strong demand of ₦4.28trn, out of which ₦1.91trn was allotted as stop rates on the 91-day and 364-day bills declined to 15.80% and 15.90%, respectively. In the secondary market, sustained interest in the newly issued 1-year NTB supported trades around the 15.75/15.60% levels midweek, although the market closed the week on a relatively calm but mildly bearish note as offers outweighed bids on the 18 Feb 2027 bill, with trades averaging 15.70%. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield decreased by 20 bps to close at 17.42 %.
We expect a calm start to the week as market participants assess the outcome of the FGN bond auction and digest the MPC’s decision.
FGN Bond Market: The FGN Bonds market opened the week on a calm note, with improved sentiment observed as buying interest emerged in the 2034 and 2035 maturities, with trades consummated on the latter at 16.35%, supported by a marginal decline in January inflation to 15.10% from 15.15%. Activity remained largely subdued through midweek, as market participants adopted a cautious stance ahead of NTB auction results, although intermittent demand on the 2035 maturity saw it quoted around 16.45/16.20%. Toward the end of the week, the market maintained its quiet bias ahead of the upcoming auction, with selective buying interest observed along the belly of the curve, particularly on the 2032 and 2034 maturities which traded at 16.15% and 16.10%, respectively. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield decreased by 7 bps to close at 15.92%.
We expect an active week as investors react to the bond auction results and the MPC decision.
FGN Eurobond Market: The Eurobond market traded on a calm note at the start of the week amid subdued volumes due to the U.S. bank holiday in observance of Presidents’ Day, with modest buying interest supporting a slight decline in yields. Sentiment remained largely muted through midweek as investors positioned ahead of the Fed meeting minutes, with the average benchmark yield compressing to 6.83% before reversing course on Thursday as the market digested the minutes. By Friday, the market adopted a bearish tone as participants awaited key PCE and GDP releases; PCE printed at 2.9% above the 2.8% forecast, while GDP came in weaker at 1.4% versus expectations of 2.8% and a previous reading of 4.4%, further compounded by risk-off sentiment following the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on tariff measures, which prompted external selling pressure across the curve. Week-on-Week, the average benchmark yield decreased by 11 bps to close at 6.84%.
We look forward to the release of PPI, unemployment claims data, and more updates on the Trump tariff saga.
Currency Market
The value of the Naira to the dollar appreciated by 0.67% week on week to close at ₦1,346.32/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).
Equities Market
The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) appreciating by 0.99% to close at 194,989.77. Market capitalization also appreciated, closing at 125.16 trillion. Market breadth was positive at 2.30x. Trading activity was robust on the day, with the volume of shares traded decreasing by 9% to 820.45 million units, while total value of shares traded decreased by 26% to ₦28.27 billion.
Reflecting the week’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index recorded a 6.95% appreciation, as gains in ZICHIS (+60.74%), JAPAULGOLD (+60.16%) and INFINITY (+59.09%) were offset by declines in RTBRISCOE (-20.78%), MECURE (-18.99%), and TRIPPLEG (-18.80%).
Overall, the NGX has posted a year-to-date gain of 25.30%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (+0.86%; +9.22% 1WK; +24.37% YTD), NGX Banking Index (+1.43%; +8.31% 1WK; +23.93% YTD), NGX Oil & Gas Index (+0.05%; +10.88% 1WK; +52.73% YTD), and NGX Insurance Index (+2.52%; +5.49% 1WK; +15.06% YTD).
