Nigeria’s inflation rate experienced a modest decline in April 2025, with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reporting a year-on-year headline inflation rate of 23.71%, down from 24.23% in March. This decrease marks a 0.52 percentage point drop and reflects a broader trend of fluctuating inflation in the country. On a month-on-month basis, the inflation rate stood at 1.86% in April, a significant reduction from the 3.90% recorded in March, indicating a slowdown in the pace of price increases. The year-on-year decline is particularly notable when compared to April 2024, where the inflation rate was 33.69%, representing a 9.99 percentage point decrease. Food inflation, a major component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), also saw a decrease, with the rate falling to 21.26% in April from 21.79% in March. However, it’s important to note that the significant year-on-year decline in food inflation is also influenced by the change in the base year used for calculations. Urban and rural inflation rates also reflected this downward trend. Urban inflation stood at 24.29% year-on-year in April, down from 36.00% in April 2024, while rural inflation was 22.83%, a decrease from 31.64% in the same period last year. These figures suggest a nationwide easing of inflationary pressures, although the rates remain high by historical standards.
Money Market
System liquidity opened the session with a ₦423.82 billion surplus. The Open Buy Back (OBB) closed flat at 26.50%, while the Overnight (OVN) rates increased by 1bp to close at 26.96%.
FGN Treasury Bills Market
The FGN Treasury Bills Market kicked off the week on a calm note with OMO maturities largely offered. Offers on Jan/Feb OMO bills hovered around 22.40% while we saw trades consummated on the 5 Mar bill at 19.40%. On the other hand, the 31 Mar bill was bid at 22.35% with scarce offers. Quotes were seen on the 22 Jan bill at 20.15/20.00. On the short end of the curve, the 10 July bill was seen offered at 17.40% with little to no trades consummated due to bids being far at 18.50%. In addition, the 5/19 Feb NTBs were seen quoted at 19.80/19.60. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield decreased by 7bps to close at 20.14%.
We look forward to the PMA in the coming week.
FGN Bond Market
The FGN Bonds Market traded in similar fashion to the previous week. On the 2031 maturity, trades were consummated at 20.10% at the onset while the 33s exchanged hands at 20.08%. In addition, the off-the-run 24 year tenored bond was offered at 16.80% with little to no bids in sight. On the macro front, Nigeria April Consumer Prices rose 23.71% Y/Y vs 23.5% consensus and 24.23% prev. At the close of the week, we saw the 31s trade at 19.86% and the 33s quoted 20.05/19.98. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield increased by 4bps to close at 18.61%.
We expect activities to remain muted.
FGN Eurobond Market
The FGN Eurobonds Market began the week on a bullish note as news of a positive US-China trade deal (90-day tariff pause) bolstered sentiment. This was particularly bolstered by U.S April CPI inflation which fell to 2.3%, below expectations of 2.4%. Fueling the bullish trend was the announcement by China’s finance ministry reducing 34% tariff rates on US goods to 10%. However, there was a reversal of this trend trigged by profit taking activities and a possible US-Iran deal which could increase Brent supply, thus spurring a decline in oil prices. On the data front, PPI m/m declined by 0.5% vs 0.2% forecast and 0.0% previous. Retail sales m/m 0.1% vs 0.0% forecast and 1.7% previous while Unemployment Claims printed at 229k vs 229k forecast and 229k prev. Week-on-Week, the average benchmark yield decreased by 41bps to 9.76%.
We look forward to the Fed Speak.
Currency Market
The value of the Naira to the dollar appreciated by 0.68% to close at ₦1598.72/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).
Equities Market
The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) appreciating by 22bps to close at 109,710.37. Market capitalization also increased, closing at ₦68.96 trillion. Market breadth was positive at 1.76x. Meanwhile, trading activity was mixed on the day, as the volume of shares traded decreased by 40.84% to 431.78 million units, while the total value of shares traded declined by 38.04% to ₦8.60 billion.
Reflecting the week’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index posted a 1-week gain of 0.90%, driven by gains in BETAGLAS (+46.31%), CHAMPION (+42.08%) and CAVERTON (+37.70%), despite being weighed down by declines in MULTIVERSE (-19.50%), UNIONDICON (-11.83%), and NAHCO (-9.64%).
Overall, the NGX has posted a year-to-date gain of 6.59%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (0.15%; 0.83% 1WK; 6.24% YTD), NGX Banking Index (0.44%; 1.19% 1WK; 8.24% YTD), NGX Oil & Gas Index (-0.09%; 0.66% 1WK; -9.27% YTD), and NGX Insurance Index (1.10%; 2.47% 1WK; -6.52% YTD).
