…Africa’s Industrial Future Depends on Solving the Energy Question
By Sola Adebawo
Africa stands at a pivotal moment in its development journey.
The continent possesses abundant natural resources, a rapidly growing population, expanding consumer markets, and some of the world’s largest reserves of critical minerals essential to the global energy transition. Yet despite these advantages, Africa remains a relatively small player in global manufacturing and industrial production.
According to the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO), Africa accounts for nearly one-fifth of the world’s population but generates only about 2 per cent of global manufacturing value added. Across much of the continent, manufacturing contributes only around 11 to 13 per cent of GDP, significantly below the levels historically associated with rapid industrial transformation.
This raises an important question.
Why has a continent so richly endowed with resources, talent, and opportunity struggled to industrialise at scale?
The answers are many.
Institutions matter.
Education matters.
Capital matters.
Infrastructure matters.
Governance matters.
Yet beneath all of these lies a foundational challenge that often receives less attention than it deserves: energy.
Reliable electricity alone cannot industrialise an economy. However, history provides little evidence that any country has sustained industrial transformation without first solving, or simultaneously solving, the energy question.
For Africa, the path to industrialisation may ultimately run through its power sector.
Industrial Revolutions Are Energy Revolutions
Every major industrial success story has been built on a foundation of reliable, affordable energy.
Britain’s Industrial Revolution was powered by coal.
America’s rise as an industrial giant was supported by large-scale electrification.
Germany, Japan, and South Korea expanded energy infrastructure alongside industrial development.
China’s emergence as the world’s manufacturing powerhouse was accompanied by one of the largest electricity expansion programmes in modern history.
The lesson is remarkably consistent.
Factories require power.
Industrial parks require power.
Transportation systems require power.
Technology infrastructure requires power.
Modern economies are powered economies.
The countries that transformed themselves into manufacturing hubs did not wait until they became wealthy before investing in energy. They invested in energy because they intended to become wealthy.
Energy was not the result of industrialisation.
It was one of its essential enablers.
Africa’s Industrialisation Challenge Is Also an Energy Challenge
Over the past four decades, much of Africa has experienced what economists describe as premature deindustrialisation.
While many Asian economies expanded manufacturing capacity, integrated into global value chains, and increased domestic value addition, manufacturing’s contribution to GDP across much of Sub-Saharan Africa has declined.
The implications are profound.
Manufacturing remains one of the most effective pathways for creating large-scale employment, increasing productivity, expanding exports, facilitating technology transfer, and generating economic complexity.
Without a strong industrial base, economies often remain dependent on the export of raw materials and vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity markets.
Energy is not the only reason for Africa’s industrial challenges.
But it is difficult to imagine sustained industrial growth in an environment where electricity remains unreliable, expensive, or unavailable.
A manufacturer in Lagos, Nairobi, Accra, Kinshasa, or Lusaka often faces a challenge that competitors in Shanghai, Seoul, or Munich rarely encounter: uncertainty about power supply.
That uncertainty directly affects competitiveness.
The Hidden Tax on African Enterprise
When public electricity systems cannot meet demand, businesses are compelled to become power producers.
Factories purchase generators.
Industrial facilities maintain fuel reserves.
Hospitals install backup systems.
Telecommunications companies build captive power infrastructure.
Technology firms invest in private energy solutions.
These expenditures represent a hidden tax on economic activity.
Resources that could have been invested in innovation, expansion, workforce development, research, or new production capacity are instead diverted toward generating electricity.
In effect, many African businesses pay twice for power: first through the public system and then through private alternatives.
This is not merely an energy problem.
It is a productivity problem.
It is an investment problem.
It is a competitiveness problem.
And ultimately, it is an industrialization problem.
Energy Is Not a Sector. It Is an Enabler
One of the most important mistakes policymakers can make is treating energy as simply another sector of the economy.
Energy occupies a unique position because almost every other sector depends upon it.
Manufacturing depends on it.
Agriculture depends on it for processing, irrigation, cold storage, and transportation.
Mining depends on it.
Healthcare depends on it.
Education increasingly depends on it.
Digital services, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, telecommunications, and data centres all depend on it.
A weak tourism sector may constrain growth.
A weak entertainment sector may reduce opportunities.
A weak power sector affects almost everything.
Energy is not merely one component of development.
It is the platform upon which development operates.
This is why countries seeking industrial transformation consistently place energy infrastructure at the centre of their economic strategy.
Why Investors Follow Power
Africa frequently debates how to attract greater investment.
Tax incentives are proposed.
Regulatory reforms are introduced.
Investment promotion campaigns are launched.
All of these have value.
But investors ultimately ask a simpler question.
Can production run reliably?
A manufacturer considering a billion-dollar investment wants confidence that factories can operate without interruption.
A technology company evaluating a data centre requires assurance of stable electricity.
An industrial investor seeks predictable energy costs and operational certainty.
Reliable electricity reduces risk.
And capital tends to flow toward environments where risk is lower.
Many investment decisions are ultimately energy decisions.
The Link Between Energy and Economic Sovereignty
Increasingly, Africa’s development conversation is shifting beyond economic growth toward economic sovereignty.
Across the continent, governments are seeking to process more minerals domestically, refine more natural resources locally, manufacture more products at home, and capture a larger share of global value chains.
These ambitions are both understandable and necessary.
Yet beneficiation requires energy.
Mineral processing requires energy.
Industrial manufacturing requires energy.
Digital infrastructure requires energy.
Value addition requires energy.
A continent cannot aspire to move up global value chains while remaining constrained by inadequate power systems.
The quest for industrial sovereignty is therefore inseparable from the quest for energy security.
Powering Africa’s Next Chapter
The conversation about Africa’s future often focuses on entrepreneurship, technology, demographics, innovation, trade, and critical minerals.
These conversations are important.
But they are incomplete without energy.
A continent that seeks to process more of its minerals, manufacture more of its products, expand intra-African trade, create jobs for its growing population, and capture greater value from its resources must first address the infrastructure that enables those ambitions.
Power does not guarantee prosperity.
But the absence of reliable power makes industrial transformation significantly more difficult.
History’s lesson remains remarkably consistent.
Before economies transform, they must first power the transformation.
For Africa, solving the energy challenge is not simply about keeping the lights on.
It is about creating the conditions for industrialisation, value addition, economic sovereignty, and long-term prosperity.
It is about unlocking the continent’s next chapter of development.
Sola Adebawo is an energy executive, institutional strategy, and public affairs leader with deep experience at the intersection of energy, governance, policy, and strategic communication. He currently leads Hyphen Partners Limited, a specialist advisory firm supporting organisations navigating complex, policy-sensitive environments. His writing explores reform, political economy, leadership, culture, and the relationship between institutions and public life. He is an author, scholar, and ordained minister.
