Nigeria’s private sector recorded its fastest expansion in over a year, as the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) rose to 53.7 in February 2025, up from 52.0 in January, according to the latest Stanbic IBTC PMI report. This marks the third consecutive month of growth, signaling a solid improvement in business conditions across key sectors. The report highlights that stronger demand and higher sales drove the increase in output, new orders, and purchasing activity. All four monitored sectors agriculture, manufacturing, services, and wholesale & retail saw growth in February, though the wholesale and retail sector’s expansion was marginal. The sustained rise in new orders suggests that businesses are experiencing increased customer confidence and spending capacity. Inflationary pressures moderated to their lowest level in ten months, though input costs remained elevated due to higher raw material prices and rising staff expenses. Despite this, the pace of price increases slowed, providing some relief for businesses navigating cost challenges.
Money Market
System liquidity opened the session at ₦1.32 trillion short, following OMO auction settlement outflow. The Open Buy Back (OBB) and the Overnight (OVN) closed the day at 27.08% and 27.67%, respectively.
FGN Treasury Bills Market
The FGN Treasury Bills Market kicked off the week on a calm note as participants implored a cautious approach, with quotes seen on both the 5 Feb and 19 Feb NTBs at 17.90/17.60. At the NTB auction this week, the DMO offered a total of N650bn across the standard maturities. Out of a total subscription of N1.922trn, N830.44bn was allotted. Stop rates on the 91-day remained flat at 17.00% while the 182-day and 364-day declined by 25bps and 61bps to 17.75% and 17.82%, respectively. Sequel to the auction, the newly issued 364-day bill exchanged hands at 17.60%. There was also an OMO auction in which the CBN floated 600bn on the long end tenors. At the auction, the CBN sold N1.68trn out of a total subscription of N1.88trn. Stop rates declined by 213bps and 200bps to 19.19% and 19.45%, respectively. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 114bps to close at 18.72%.
We expect cautious sentiments ahead of the PMA.
FGN Bond Market
The FGN Bonds Market saw a quiet week with a bearish bias. Trades were consummated on the 31s and 35s as high as 19.00% and 18.85%, in contrast to 18.70% and 18.40% at the start of the week. The 2029 maturity was seen offered at 18.80% while bids were scarce. On the long end of the curve, the off-the-run 28-year bond was also offered at 16.40% with little to no bids to match. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 66bps to close at 18.38%.
We expect a similar trading pattern.
FGN Eurobond Market
The FGN Eurobond Market traded on mixed sentiments this week. At the onset, it was bullish after U.S PCE data came in line with expectations (2.6% YOY). Furthermore, the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI printed at 52.7, higher than the 51.6 forecast and prior. On the other hand, the ISM Manufacturing printed at 50.3 below the 50.7 forecast and 50.9 previous. As the week progressed, the bears dominated following the ongoing trade wars and global uncertainty. It was indeed a data filled week. In the U.S, the ADP Non-Farm printed lower at 77k vs market forecast of 141k and prior level at 186k, while Unemployment Claims printed at 221k vs 234k forecast and 242k previous. In addition, NFP data showed that 151K jobs were added in contrast to 160K forecast and 143K previous while unemployment rate inched up to 4.1% from 4.0%. Overall, we concluded the week on a bullish note. Week-on-Week, the average benchmark yield increased by 36bps to 9.03%.
We expect a modest recovery ahead of CPI.
Currency Market
The value of the Naira to the dollar declined by 114bps to close at ₦1517.24/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).
Equities Market
The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) declining by 23bps to close at 106,538.60. Market capitalization also increased, closing at ₦66.73 trillion. Market breadth was positive at 1.78x, with 32 advancers and 18 decliners. This performance was driven by gains in LIVESTOCK (+9.87%), HONYFLOUR (+9.80%) and EUNISELL (+9.69%), and losses in IKEJAHOTEL (-9.70%), TRANSCORP (-9.46%), and FCMB (-7.61%).
Trading activity was mixed on the day, with the volume of shares traded decreasing by 7.43% to 347.52 million units, while the total value of shares traded decreased by 6.09% to ₦9.56 billion. The most actively traded stocks by volume were ZENITHBANK with 42.15 million units, FIDELITYBK with 17.25 million units, and ACCESSCORP with 31.50 million units. In terms of value, ZENITHBANK led with ₦2.02 billion, followed by OKOMUOIL at ₦1.33 billion, and GTCO at ₦941.17 million.
Reflecting the day’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index reflected a 1-week loss of 1.15% with an overall year-to-date gain of 3.51%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (-0.42%; -1.56% 1WK; 3.46% YTD), NGX Banking Index (0.12%; -3.02% 1WK; 4.40% YTD), NGX Oil & Gas Index (-0.09%; 0.59% 1WK; -5.72% YTD), and NGX Insurance Index (1.27%; -2.46% 1WK; -2.82% YTD).
