Nigeria recorded two significant developments this week aimed at boosting economic growth and infrastructure delivery. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) announced the successful River Niger crossing on the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) Gas Pipeline—considered the most technically challenging segment—bringing the project closer to its completion target by year-end. NNPC’s new GCEO, Bayo Ojulari, highlighted this milestone during his first public address, also revealing that the country has achieved 100% pipeline availability for the first time in decades, thanks to improved security efforts. However, he warned that crude oil production remains below capacity, averaging just 1.35mbpd, and emphasized the urgent need for new investments to fully leverage the restored infrastructure. In a parallel push for economic inclusion, the Federal Government inaugurated the Board of the National Credit Guarantee Company (NCGC Ltd), a new institution designed to unlock access to affordable credit for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Vice President Kashim Shettima described the company as a “critical engine” for grassroots development, offering credit guarantees to reduce lending risk for financial institutions. Chaired by former Speaker Yakubu Dogara and backed by stakeholders including the Bank of Industry and Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority, the NCGC aims to dismantle longstanding barriers to financing and stimulate job creation, productivity, and inclusive growth across the country.
Money Market
System liquidity closed the week with a credit balance of ₦468.52 billion. The Open Buy Back (OBB) rate and the Overnight (OVN) rate closed at 26.83% and 27.42%, respectively.
FGN Treasury Bills Market
The FGN Treasury Bills Market kicked off the week with an OMO auction announcement where the CBN floated N600bn on the long end. At the auction, the CBN sold 745.40bn out of a total subscription of N771.65bn. There was no sale on the 113-day bill while the 260-day bill closed at 23.99%, a 60bps decline from previous stop rate. Sequel to the auction, we’ve seen the 17 Mar OMO bill exchange hands at 22.50%. The 4 June bill remained the most in demand, exchanging hands at 17.70% while the 22 Jan NTB was quoted 19.10/19.00. Furthermore, trades were consummated on the 11 Nov OMO bill at 24.25%. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 45bps to 19.98%
We expect a similar session.
FGN Bond Market
The FGN Bonds Market witnessed an active session with yield compression seen across the curve. Demand remained persistent for the 2038 maturity while offers were scarce. Furthermore, the 2031 and 2033 maturities both exchanged hands at 17.50%. In addition, the new 2032 maturity was seen quoted 17.95/17.75 and the 53s at 16.10/15.90. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield appreciated by 87bps to 17.20%
We expect the buying sentiments to persist.
FGN Eurobond Market
The FGN Eurobonds Market was off to a bullish start this week following easily geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It was a data filled week in the U.S. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.0 (vs 48.8 expected, 48.5 prior), while JOLTS Job Openings printed at 7.769 million, surpassing consensus expectations of 7.3 million and the previous reading of 7.391 million. In addition, the ADP Employment Change fell by 33K vs +95K forecast vs 29K previous. Following NFP data which showed payrolls increased by by 147k (Forecast 106k, Previous 139k, Revised 144k) and US Unemployment Rate Actual 4.1% (Forecast 4.3%, Previous 4.2%), the probability of a hold at the next Fed meeting increased to 95.3% from 76.2%. Overall, the Friday session was calm due to the bank holiday. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 9bps to 8.22%
We expect similar sentiments.
Currency Market
The value of the Naira to the dollar appreciated by 69bps to close the week at ₦1528.56/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).
Equities Market
The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) gained by 1bps to close at 120,990.27. Market capitalization also gained, closing at ₦74.81 trillion. Market breadth was positive at 1.63x. Meanwhile, trading activity was robust on the day, as the volume of shares traded decreased by 1.02% to 923.82 million units, while the total value of shares traded decreased by 62.46% to ₦11.00 billion.
Reflecting the week’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index recorded a 0.83% appreciation, as notable gains in MEYER (+60.11%), NEIMETH (+58.00%) and RTBRISCOE (+51.45%) were partially offset by declines in PZ (-14.96%), OANDO (-11.21%), and SCOA (-9.83%). Overall, the NGX has posted a year-to-date gain of 17.55%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (-0.02%; 0.40% 1WK; 16.68% YTD), NGX Banking Index (-0.13%; 0.12% 1WK; 19.50% YTD), NGX Oil & Gas Index (0.80%; 0.77% 1WK; -9.17% YTD), and NGX Insurance Index (1.33%; 5.86% 1WK; 10.34% YTD).
