The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has recently released its financial statements, revealing a significant improvement in the country’s Net Foreign Exchange Reserves (NFER). As of the end of 2024, the NFER stood at $23.11 billion, marking the highest level in over three years. This represents a substantial increase from $3.99 billion at the end of 2023, $8.19 billion in 2022, and $14.59 billion in 2021. The CBN attributes this improvement to a substantial reduction in short-term foreign exchange liabilities, notably swaps and forward obligations. Additionally, measures aimed at boosting forex market confidence and reserves, alongside increased non-oil foreign exchange inflows, have contributed to this positive development. Gross external reserves also saw an upward trajectory, rising to $40.19 billion from $33.22 billion in 2023. This increase was bolstered by higher current-account surpluses and foreign currency-denominated local bonds issued in late 2024. The recent growth in reserves has contributed to a more favorable economic outlook, with the CBN projecting a GDP growth of 4.17% in 2025 and an anticipated easing of inflation rates. However, the depletion observed in early 2025 underscores the vulnerability of these reserves to global economic fluctuations, particularly those affecting oil prices.
Money Market
System liquidity opened the session with a surplus of ₦969.64 billion, a decline from Thursday’s level driven by a CRR debit. The Open Buy Back (OBB) and the Overnight (OVN) closed the day at 26.50% and 26.86%, respectively.
FGN Treasury Bills Market
The FGN Treasury Bills market saw moderate activity as the week began with a public holiday. Demand was minimal, primarily focused on the 364-day bill, which traded at 19.50%. The longer-end OMO bills also attracted some interest, with the January 27th bill trading at 20.30%. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield increased by 37bps to close at 19.99%.
We expect a similar session as we await the Q2 issuance calendar.
FGN Bond Market
The FGN Bonds market experienced a quiet session, with trading activity subdued. Bearish sentiment prevailed, as the curve was primarily offered, leaving very few bids to match the available supply. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield closed flat at 18.54%.
We expect demand to remain subdued.
FGN Eurobond Market
The FGN Eurobond market began the week on a bearish note, influenced by anticipation surrounding Trump’s April 2nd tariff speech. Following his announcement of tariffs on all trading partner countries, the market saw further declines. The negative sentiment was further exacerbated by OPEC+’s decision to increase oil supply by 411,000 bpd. In terms of macroeconomic data, the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came in at 115k, below the expected 118k, while the Non-Farm Payroll report showed a stronger-than-expected gain of 228k jobs, surpassing the forecast of 137k. Week-on-Week, the average benchmark yield increased by 128bps to 10.67%.
We look forward to CPI data and PPI data.
Currency Market
The value of the Naira to the dollar declined by 1.97% to close at ₦1567.02/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).
Equities Market
The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) declining by 1bp to close at 105,511.89. Market capitalization also decreased, closing at ₦66.15 trillion. Market breadth was negative at 0.62x, with 18 advancers and 29 decliners. This performance was driven by gains in LEARNAFRCA (+10.00%), LIVESTOCK (+10.00%) and VFDGROUP (+9.83%), and losses in LASACO (-10.00%), MANSARD (-10.00%), and MAYBAKER (-8.72%).
Trading activity was mixed on the day, with the volume of shares traded decreasing by 12.34% to 347.80 million units, while the total value of shares traded decreased by 7.28% to ₦8.10 billion. The most actively traded stocks by volume were UBA with 26.32 million units, UCAP with 25.61 million units, and FCMB with 24.15 million units. In terms of value, GTCO led with ₦1.45 billion, followed by ZENITHBANK at ₦1.09 billion, and UBA at ₦972.34 million.
Reflecting the day’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index reflected a 1-week loss of 0.15% with an overall year-to-date gain of 2.51%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (0.00%; -0.08% 1WK; 2.82% YTD), NGX Banking Index (0.51%; 0.22% 1WK; 7.19% YTD), NGX Oil & Gas Index (-0.50%; -1.18% 1WK; -10.41% YTD), and NGX Insurance Index (-3.21%; -4.13% 1WK; -6.97% YTD).
