September 2024: Nigeria Inflation Rate rises to 32.70%

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Headline Inflation

In September 2024, Nigeria’s headline inflation rose to 32.70%, up from 32.15% in August, marking a 0.55% increase. Year-on-year, inflation was 5.98 percentage points higher than the 26.72% recorded in September 2023. On a month-on-month basis, inflation increased to 2.52%, 0.30% higher than August’s 2.22%.

Key drivers included naira depreciation and rising transportation costs (27.2% vs 25.7%), fueled by fuel price hikes in early September. Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of Nigeria’s inflation basket, rose to 37.8% from 37.5%, exacerbated by severe floods in key agricultural areas. Core inflation, excluding volatile items, eased slightly to 27.4% from 27.6%. Consumer prices surged 2.5% monthly, the highest in six months.

Source: NBS, Futureview Research

Urban Inflation

The Urban inflation rate in September 2024 was 35.13%, up by 6.46% points from 28.68% in September 2023. On a month-on-month basis, it was 2.67%, up 0.28% points compared to August 2024’s (2.39%). The twelve-month average for Urban inflation was 33.95% in September 2024, 9.84% points higher than the 24.10% reported in September 2023.

Rural Inflation

In September 2024, the Rural inflation rate was 30.49%, up 5.55% points from 24.94% recorded in September 2023. On month-on-month basis, it was 2.39%, up 0.33% points compared to August 20224 (2.06%). While, the corresponding twelve-month average Rural inflation was 29.76% in September 2024, 7.97% points higher than the 21.79% recorded in September 2023.

Food Inflation

In September 2024, food inflation reached 37.77% year-on-year, 7.13% higher than September 2023’s rate of 30.64%. This increase was driven by rising prices of items in various categories: Bread & Cereals (Guinea Corn, Rice, Maize), Potatoes, Yam & Other Tubers (Yam, Cassava), Tobacco (Beer), Coffee, Tea & Cocoa (Lipton, Milo), and Oils & Fats (Vegetable Oil, Palm Oil). On a month-on-month basis, food inflation was 2.64%, a 0.27% increase from August 2024, due to price rises in items like Beer, Oils & Fats, Meat, Coffee, Tea & Cocoa, and Milk, Eggs, etc. The average annual food inflation rate for the twelve months ending September 2024 was 37.53%, up by 11.88% from 25.65% in the prior year.

Core Inflation (All Items less Farm Produce and Energy)

Core inflation (excluding volatile agricultural products and energy) rose to 27.43% year-on-year in September 2024, recording a 5.59% increase from 21.84% in September 2023. The main contributors were higher prices for rents, intercity bus and taxi journeys, meals at local restaurants, and medical services such as lab tests and doctor consultations. On a month-on-month basis, core inflation was 2.10% in September 2024, down from 2.27% in August 2024. The average annual core inflation for the twelve months ending September 2024 was 25.64%, up by 6.09% from 19.55% in the prior year.

STATE PROFILES

All Items Inflation

In September 2024, Bauchi (44.83%), Sokoto (38.74%), and Jigawa (38.39%) had the highest year-on-year inflation rates, while Delta (26.35%), Benue (26.90%), and Katsina (27.71%) saw the slowest increases in headline inflation. Month-on-month, the highest inflation increases were in Sokoto (4.63%), Taraba (4.07%), and Anambra (3.74%), while Kwara (1.14%), Cross River (1.78%), and Lagos (1.82%) had the slowest month-on-month inflation rises.

Food Inflation

In September 2024, food inflation was highest year-on-year in Sokoto (50.47%), Gombe (44.09%), and Yobe (43.51%), while Kwara (32.45%), Rivers (32.80%), and Kogi (32.83%) saw the slowest increases. On a month-on-month basis, Sokoto (5.94%), Taraba (5.76%), and Bayelsa (4.44%) recorded the highest food inflation, while Kwara (0.88%), Cross River (1.29%), and Kogi (1.45%) recorded the slowest month-on-month rises.

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