Comercio Partners Weekly Markets Round-up

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On the domestic front, there was a contentious dispute between the Senate and House of Representatives arises over the Central Bank of Nigeria’s imposition of a 0.5% cybersecurity levy. While the Senate defends the levy’s transparency and national security importance, the House calls for its suspension due to concerns over public backlash and unclear implementation directives. Despite the Senate’s efforts to consult widely and provide exemptions, skepticism persists, particularly from societal groups like the Northern Elders Forum, citing the levy’s exacerbation of financial strains amidst economic challenges. This debate underscores broader concerns about equitable economic distribution and the delicate balance between cybersecurity imperatives and societal well-being, shaping nuanced discourse in Nigeria at the intersection of security, economy, and public sentiment.



Money Market

To conclude the week, system liquidity settled at ₦81.10 billion long. WoW, the Open Buy Back (OBB) rate and the Overnight (OVN) rate jumped 175bps and 155bps to print at 28.63% and 28.00%, consecutively.

We expect rates to hover around current levels.


 
Treasury Bills Market

The Treasury Bills market kicked off the week on a calm note with a bearish bias on the 10-Apr-25 bill with trades consummated at 20.45%. We witnessed the OMO auction during which the CBN offered ₦500 billion across the standard maturities. However, ₦260.65 billion was sold while total subscription stood at ₦286.65 billion. Stop rates on the 99-day and 183-day bill dipped by 1bp and 2bps to close at 18.99% and19.48%, respectively. However, the 365-day bill printed at 21.50%, representing a 37.5bps increase from prior levels. At the NTB auction, the DMO offered ₦179.36 billion across three tenors. Total subscription amounted to ₦914.08 billion with only allotted value of ₦274.66 billion. Stop rates closed at previous auction level of 16.24%, 17.00%, and 20.70% on the 91-, 182-, and 364-day papers. Sequel to the auctions, we saw the newly issued 6-May-25 bill trade 21.05/20.90 and the 8-May-25 bill 20.15/20.00. Week-on-week analysis indicates an 18bps decline in the average benchmark yield, printing at 22.19%. 

We expect a calm session.

                    
FGN Bond Market

The FGN local bond Market traded on a bullish note with emphasis on the off-the-run bonds while the FEB 2031 bond remained largely offered at 19.60%. We saw strong demand on the 53s with firm bids at 17.63% and offers at 17.50%. The 2050 bond was also bid at 17.90% and offered at 17.50%. Furthermore, we saw the old 29s offered at 17.10% and the Feb 34s trade 19.55% on the bid and 19.40% on the offer. WoW, the average benchmark yields slid 21bps, settling at 18.54%.

We expect a calm session as focus will be skewed to the outcome of the auction.



FGN Eurobond Market

The FGN Eurobond market was off to a quiet start this week as foreign counterparts observed the bank holiday. Bearish sentiments trickled into the market as news of higher for longer rates by some FEDs speakers spooked investors. The negative bias persisted despite initial jobless claims printing higher at 231K versus 210K consensus and a previous of 209K. Nonetheless, the market concluded on a bullish note as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell below preliminary estimates for May, sharing a print of 67.4 against expectations for 76.2. WoW, the average benchmark yields dipped 10bps, settling at 9.51%.

We expect events to be dictated by the PPI data.


Currency Market

The value of the Naira to the dollar lost 471bps to print at ₦1466.31/$ this week at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market Window.


Equities Market

At the closing bell, the Nigerian stock market experienced a disappointing week, marked by a 136bps dip WoW and a marginal 2bps decline day-on-day in the benchmark All-Share index, concluding at 98,233.76 points. Taking a more granular view, market cap declined by ₦0.01 trillion to ₦55.57 trillion while the year-to-date return settled at 31.37%. This negative trajectory was largely influenced by the price declines in ACCESSCORP (-0.57%), and TRANSCORP (-2.70%) diluting gains in UBA (+0.96%) and GTCO (+3.63%). Nonetheless, market breadth concluded at 1.11x which shows that 40 advancers outnumbered 36 decliners. 

Trade metrics showed mixed activity, with volume traded down 22.88% to 344.38 million units and value up 5.93% to ₦7.52 billion. Notably, UBA, ACCESSCORP, and ZENITHBANK ranked top three most traded stocks by volume and value for the day, with trading volumes of 90.12 million units, 39.59 million units, and 35.10 million units, and valuations of ₦2.41 billion, ₦691.14 million, and ₦1.21 billion, respectively. 

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