In July 2024, Nigeria’s money supply (M3) hit a record N106.27 trillion, marking a 62.66% increase from July 2023, despite the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) tightening measures. The CBN has countered inflationary pressures with tools like Open Market Operations (OMO), treasury bills, and raising the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to 26.75% in July 2024. Additionally, the CBN plans to issue N2.20 trillion in treasury bills in Q4 2024. Currency in circulation (CIC) grew 56.18% year-on-year to N4.053 trillion, reflecting increased economic activity and government spending. However, currency outside banks (COBs) fell 3.43% month-on-month to N3.66 trillion but surged 65.61% year-on-year. Credit to the government dropped 31.19% to N19.006 trillion in July 2024, while loans to the private sector climbed 33.69% year-on-year to N75.48 trillion, driven by high demand due to rising costs.
https://www.digital.zenithbank.com/ZEQ/ZEQ-jan-2026/index.html#p=1Money Market
Market liquidity opened the day at ₦624.28 billion long. The Open Buy Back (OBB) rate and the Overnight (OVN) rate closed at 18.11% and 20.06%, respectively.
We expect rates to hover around current levels.
Treasury Bills Market
The FGN Treasury Bills Market traded on an active note this week with demand inclined to the Aug bills. During the week, the CBN issued an OMO announcement floating N500bn across the standard tenors. While total subscription stood at N891.46bn, N869.46bn was allotted. Stop rates closed on the 92-day, 176-day and 358-day closed at 18.489%, 19.288% and 21.89%, respectively. Sequel to the auction, we saw the 19 Aug bill quoted 20.60/20.40 close. The CBN issued another OMO announcement with N500bn offered across the standard tenors. Out a total since of N765bn, the CBN sold N758bn on the long end with the stop rate declining by 2bps from previous level. The 26 Aug OMO bill was offered 21.35% while bids remained scarce. Demand persisted on the 7 Aug and 21 Aug NTB bill both bid at 18.55% while offers were limited. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 86bps to close at 19.38%
We expect a calm market ahead of the NTB auction on Wednesday.
FGN Bond Market
The FGN Bonds Market witnessed a bullish week as trades were consummated on the 33s as low as 19.60%. There was also demand seen on the new 29s and 34s bid at 19.60% and 19.40%, respectively with little to no offers to be seen. We saw trades consummated on the 53s at 16.80%, while the 31s was bid at 19.97% and offered 19.86%. Furthermore, the off the run 29-year bond was quoted 17.10/16.80. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 65bps to close at 18.66%
We expect similar sentiments.
FGN Eurobond Market
The FGN Eurobonds Market began on a somber note owing to the bank holiday. Nonetheless, the bulls held their grip. The United States Consumer Sentiment Index improved in August to 103.3 from 101.9 prior. Additional data showed that the economy expanded by 3.0% in Q2, contrary to 2.8% expected. Also, the initial Jobless claims data printed at 231K vs 232k expected and 233k prior. Today, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE YoY printed at 2.6% against 2.7% expected and 2.6% prior, solidifying market expectations of a September rate cut. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 194bps to close at 8%
We expect a calm session due to the United States Labor Day Holiday.
Currency Market
The value of the Naira to the dollar depreciated by 181bps compared to the previous week, printing at ₦1598.56/$ to close the week at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market Window (NAFEM).
Equities Market
The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) appreciating by 18bps to close at 96,579.54. Market capitalization also rose, closing at ₦55.49 trillion. Market breadth was positive at 1.08x, with 27 stocks advancing and 25 declining. This performance was driven by gains in OANDO [MRF] (+9.94%), UBA (+4.79%), and TRANSCORP (+7.27%), and losses in JBERGER (-1.22%), GTCO (-0.87%), and ZENITHBANK (-0.26%).
Trading activity was mixed, with the volume of shares traded declining by 40.64% to 573.96 million units, while the value of shares traded appreciated by 325.55% to ₦31.58 billion. The most actively traded stocks by volume were JBERGER with 120.76 million units, OANDO [MRF] 93.86 million units, and JAIZBANK with 54.04 million units. In terms of value, JBERGER led with ₦19.63 billion, followed by OANDO [MRF] at ₦6.88 billion, and GTCO at ₦1.2 billion.
Reflecting the day’s mixed performance, the NGX All-Share Index reflected a 1-week gain of 0.18% and a 4-week loss of 1.19%, with an overall year-to-date gain of 29.16%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (+0.05%; +1.07% 1WK; +28.66% YTD), NGX Banking Index (+1.05%; +1.96% 1WK; -4.46% YTD), and NGX Oil & Gas Index (+2.5%; +8.5% 1WK; +78.43% YTD).
