Finance ministers and central bank governors from across Africa have warned of a projected slowdown in the continent’s economic growth, as global uncertainties, rising debt pressures, and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on development prospects.
This position was contained in a joint statement issued at the conclusion of the African Consultative Group meeting by Mr. Seedy Keita, Chairman of the African Caucus and Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs of The Gambia, alongside Ms. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The meeting brought together African policymakers and IMF management to assess the evolving global economic environment and its implications for African economies. Discussions were held against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which participants noted could significantly dampen global growth prospects even in the event of a ceasefire holding and gradual stabilisation.
According to the statement, global economic growth is projected to moderate to 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027 under a relatively stable scenario. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain, with the possibility that prolonged conflict or disruptions to production and transport networks could further weaken global performance.
For Africa, the meeting noted that despite recent stabilisation gains achieved in 2025, growth momentum is expected to ease. Real GDP growth across the continent is projected to decline from 4.5 per cent in 2025 to 4.2 per cent in 2026. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to slow to 4.3 per cent, while North Africa is projected at 4.1 per cent over the same period.
Participants expressed concern that high debt service burdens, constrained access to affordable financing, and increasing development needs continue to limit fiscal space, particularly in low-income, fragile, and conflict-affected countries. They further warned that ongoing global tensions could exacerbate inflationary pressures, disrupt food supply chains, and heighten social vulnerabilities across the continent.
In response to these challenges, the African Consultative Group agreed that policymakers must strike a careful balance between managing immediate shocks and strengthening long-term resilience. Near-term priorities include anchoring inflation expectations and protecting vulnerable populations through targeted, time-bound interventions. Fiscal policy, they emphasised, must remain credible yet flexible, with oil-exporting countries encouraged to save temporary revenue windfalls and rebuild fiscal buffers, while oil-importing countries are advised to safeguard essential social and development spending alongside efforts to mobilise domestic revenues and improve public financial management.
The statement also highlighted the need for accelerated structural reforms to boost growth and diversification, deepen regional integration, strengthen domestic financial markets, and invest in critical infrastructure, such as power and digital systems, to support productivity and innovation.
Additionally, the Group underscored the importance of ongoing reforms to the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework, noting that enhancements to debt assessment methodologies would improve transparency, comparability, and policy effectiveness. These reforms are expected to help countries and development partners better identify vulnerabilities and support sustainable financing decisions, including clearer treatment of state-owned enterprise-related obligations where relevant.
The African Consultative Group further emphasized the importance of the ongoing Comprehensive Surveillance Review, urging the IMF to continue delivering tailored policy advice, strengthen its assessment of global spillovers, and enhance support for shock management while streamlining surveillance processes.
The IMF reaffirmed its strong commitment to its African member countries, pledging continued collaboration to support sound macroeconomic policies, mobilise financing, strengthen resilience, and advance inclusive development across the continent in an increasingly complex global environment.
