Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased slightly to 15.91% in June 2026 from 15.93% in May, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The June reading was significantly lower than the 25.29% recorded a year earlier, while month-on-month inflation slowed to 1.66% from 1.75% in May, showing that overall price pressures continued to ease. However, monthly food inflation rose to 3.75%, indicating that food prices remain a key source of inflation. The latest data could support demand for longer-dated FGN bonds as investors continue to position for lower inflation over time. However, the small decline in headline inflation and the rise in food prices are unlikely to prompt an immediate change in monetary policy, with the Central Bank of Nigeria expected to maintain its current stance while monitoring inflation, exchange rate stability, and liquidity conditions.
https://www.digital.zenithbank.com/ZEQ/ZEQ-jan-2026/index.html#p=1Nigeria’s gross external reserves rose to $51.86 billion as of July 14, 2026, marking their highest level in more than 17 years and exceeding the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) projection for the year. According to data released by the CBN, the increase extends the steady accumulation in reserves seen over recent months, supported by improved oil receipts, stronger foreign portfolio inflows, and sustained foreign exchange reforms aimed at improving market liquidity. The latest figure is the highest since January 15, 2009, when reserves stood at $52.01 billion, before the global financial crisis significantly weakened oil prices and Nigeria’s external position. The stronger reserve position is expected to enhance the CBN’s ability to support exchange rate stability, meet external obligations, and improve investor confidence in the Nigerian economy. Analysts also believe the continued build-up in reserves strengthens the country’s external buffers against potential global shocks, although maintaining the trend will depend on sustained FX inflows, oil market performance, and continued macroeconomic reforms.
Money Market
System liquidity saw an decreasing trend throughout the trading week, opening at ₦4.95 trillion on Monday, and closing at ₦4.63trillion. Week-on-week, the Nigerian Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) held steady to close at 22.00%, while the Overnight (OVN) rates declined by 10bps to close at 22.13%.
We expect rate to continue to hover around this level.
Treasury Bills Market
The Treasury Bills market traded on an active note this week. Early in the week, the CBN conducted two consecutive OMO auctions, offering a total of ₦1.2 trillion across various tenors. The auctions attracted strong investor demand, with total subscriptions of ₦3.70 trillion and allotments of ₦3.68 trillion as the Apex Bank continues to mop-up liquidity from the system. Midweek, the DMO conducted an NTB auction, offering ₦600 billion across the standard tenors. Investor demand remained robust, as total subscriptions came in at ₦3.03 trillion, while the DMO allotted ₦1.19 trillion. Stop rates were largely stable, as the 91-day and 182-day bills held steady at 16.30% and 16.50%, respectively, while the 364-day bill declined by 4bps to 17.66%. In the secondary market, buying interest improved following the auction as unmet demand filtered into the market, with activity concentrated on the newly issued 15 Jul bill which was quoted at 17.55%/17.40%. By week-end, buying interest persisted, as trades on the 15 Jul bill were consummated around the 17.30% level to close the week. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 13bps to close at 18.44%.
We expect Monday’s bond auction results to be the primary driver of market direction as participants look for fresh catalyst.
FGN Bond Market
The FGN Bond market traded on a mixed note this week. The week opened on an active note, with selling pressure observed across the mid-to-long end of the curve, particularly on the 2035 and 2038 maturities, where offers were seen at 18.30% and 18.25%, respectively. Sentiment improved following the release of the bond auction circular, where the DMO revised the offer size to ₦1.2 trillion across the 2035, 2037 and 2038 maturities, which prompted mild buying interest on the on-the-run bonds. Trades on the 2035 maturity were consummated around the 18.38% level before repricing lower to 18.35% as demand improved. Activity remained subdued following the NTB auction as market participants assessed the auction results, while headline inflation also eased marginally to 15.91% y/y in June from 15.93% in May. By week-end, buying interest persisted on the mid-to-long end of the curve, with the 2035 maturity closing the week quoted at 18.45%/18.30%. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield increased by 2bps to close at 17.44%.
We anticipate a quiet start as investors await the outcome of Monday’s bond auction result and look forward to CBN’s MPC meeting.
FGN Eurobond Market
The Eurobond market traded on a mixed, albeit bearish, note this week as heightened geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran dominated investor sentiment. The week opened on a negative note after both countries exchanged heavy missile and drone attacks, while President Donald Trump announced plans to reimpose a blockade on Iranian ports and impose shipping fees through the Strait of Hormuz, which raised concerns over global oil supply. Sentiment briefly improved after softer-than-expected U.S. CPI and PPI data reinforced expectations of easing inflation and a less aggressive Fed stance. However, the positive sentiment was short-lived as both sides exchanged fresh strikes throughout the week. By week-end, the conflict had escalated further after the United States expanded its bombing campaign and Iran responded with fresh attacks on U.S. facilities across the Middle East, increasing fears of a return to full-scale conflict. Week-on-Week, the average benchmark yield declined by 5bps to close at 6.86%.
We expect market direction to be driven by evolving geopolitical developments, Initial Jobless Claims, and PMI data.
Currency Market
The value of the Naira to the dollar depreciated by 0.04% week on week to close at ₦1,380.18/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).
Equities Market
The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) increasing by 0.54% to close at 243,462.10 points while market capitalisation also increased to close at N157.06 trillion. Market breadth was positive at 1.83x. Trading activity was active on the day, with the volume of shares traded increasing by 37.59% to 685.79 million units, while total value of shares traded increased by 22.18% to ₦42.59 billion.
Reflecting the week’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index depreciated by 0.20%, as gains in FIRSTHOLDCO (+38.66%), FIDELITYBK (+15.00%), and UBA (+10.99%) were offset by declines in BUACEMENT (-18.99%), REDSTAREX (-18.53%), and CILEASING (-13.28%).
Overall, the NGX has posted a year-to-date gain of 56.45%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (0.59%; 0.22% 1WK; +56.87% YTD), NGX Banking Index (3.13%; 8.44% 1WK; +54.96% YTD), NGX Oil & Gas Index (0.00%; -0.63% 1WK; +96.59% YTD), and NGX Insurance Index (1.08%; 0.34% 1WK; -4.50% YTD).
