Nigeria’s economy strengthened its recovery momentum in the second quarter of 2025, with real GDP growing by 4.23% year-on-year. This marks a significant acceleration from 3.13% in the first quarter and an improvement over 3.48% recorded in the same period of 2024. The figures confirm that the economy is not only on a recovery path but is gaining traction despite persistent structural and macroeconomic challenges.
The oil and gas sector was the undisputed growth driver, expanding by 20.46% in Q2 compared to just 1.87% in Q1. This represents the sector’s strongest performance in years, propelled by policy reforms, governance improvements at the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), and favorable global market conditions. Despite this remarkable surge, the sector contributed just 4.05% of total GDP, highlighting the continued importance of non-oil activity for inclusive growth.
Agriculture posted a 2.82% growth rate, rebounding from near stagnation in Q1. The gains were supported by government input programs, improved rainfall, and subnational initiatives. However, challenges such as weak rural infrastructure, limited mechanization, poor access to finance, and security issues continue to constrain the sector’s full potential.
Manufacturing growth moderated to 1.60%, reflecting high operating costs, foreign exchange volatility, and stiff competition from imports. Still, pockets of resilience emerged within industry. Oil refining output surged to 15.78%, indicating progress in domestic refining and import substitution, while construction slowed to 5.25% due to delayed budget implementation and funding bottlenecks.
Transport and aviation registered a strong turnaround, with air transport growing by 6.34% after a contraction in Q1. The rebound was attributed to regulatory reforms, improved safety oversight, and rising demand for air travel.
The services sector retained its dominance, contributing 56.53% of GDP. Within services, ICT remained a key driver at 6.60%, though slower than previous quarters. Financial services continued to perform strongly, expanding by 16.18%, supported by higher revenue flows, transaction volumes, and stronger intermediation. Trade and real estate, however, slowed due to weak consumer demand and regulatory tightening.
Some sectors remain under severe strain. The textile and apparel industry contracted by 1.32%, extending a multi-year slump driven by energy costs and smuggling. Motor vehicle assembly also declined by 1.5%, reversing earlier gains. CPPE emphasized that sustained policy support, including stronger local procurement frameworks, would be crucial to reviving these industries.
Green shoots were evident in other areas. Livestock production grew 1.64% after a sharp contraction in Q1, supported by the creation of a dedicated livestock ministry and sectoral programs. Coal mining also surged by 57.53%, reversing earlier declines and signaling renewed investor interest.
The overall structure of the economy remained stable, with agriculture accounting for 26.17%, industry 17.13%, and services 56.53%. Non-oil GDP grew by 3.64%, confirming the resilience of the broader economy despite the outsized impact of oil sector performance on headline growth.
Looking ahead, sustaining this momentum will require urgent structural interventions. These include reducing energy and logistics costs, accelerating infrastructure investments, expanding affordable credit to MSMEs and farmers, promoting local content and import substitution, and ensuring policy consistency to sustain private sector confidence.
Speaking on the report, Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), noted that Q2 2025 represents one of the strongest growth performances in recent years. He stressed, however, that translating this growth into jobs, poverty reduction, and inclusive prosperity would depend on unlocking productivity in agriculture, manufacturing, construction, real estate, and trade—sectors that directly impact the majority of Nigerians.
“Q2 2025 is a clear statement that Nigeria’s economy is moving beyond stabilisation toward a stronger recovery. With consistent reforms, improved governance, and effective collaboration with the private sector, the country can transform this growth momentum into a more resilient, inclusive, and job-rich economy,” Dr. Yusuf said.
