The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to 23.71% in April 2025 YoY from 24.23% in March 2025, representing a 52bps decrease from the prior month. On a year-on-year basis, the Headline inflation rate was 9.99% lower than the rate recorded in April 2024 (33.69%). This shows that the Headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) decreased in April 2025 compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., April 2024), though with a different base year, November 2009 = 100.
The surge can be attributed to significant decrease in both the food and core inflation, settling at 21.26% and 23.39%, respectively, compared to 21.79% and 24.43% in April 2025. The decrease was attributed to the rate of decrease in the average prices of Maize (Corn) Flour, Wheat Grain, Okro Dried, Yam Flour, Soya Beans, Rice, Bambara beans and Brown Beans. Additionally, the increase in the core index was driven by a decrease in the prices of Passenger transport by road amid the re-initiation of the Naira for crude oil arrangement, which led to a reduction in the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS). On a month-on-month basis, the headline, food, and core inflation decreased to 1.86%, 2.06% and 1.34% MoM respectively, (vs 3.90%, 2.18%, and 3.73% in March 2025).
All Items Inflation
In April 2025, All Items inflation rate on a YoYear basis was highest in Enugu (35.98%), Kebbi (35.13%), and Niger (34.85%), while Ondo (13.42%), Cross River (17.11%), Kwara (17.28%) recorded the lowest rise in Headline inflation on Year-on-Year basis. On a MoM basis, however, April 2025 recorded the highest increases in Sokoto (16.26%), Nasarawa (16.02%), Niger (14.74%), while Oyo (-6.45%), Osun (-4.54%) and Ondo (-3.44%) recorded the lowest rise in MoMninflation.
Food Inflation
In April 2025, Food inflation on a YoY basis was highest in Benue (51.76%), Ekiti (34.05%), Kebbi (33.82%), while Ebonyi (7.19%), Adamawa (9.52%), and Ogun (9.91%) recorded the slowest rise in Food inflation on YoY basis. On a Month-on-Month basis, however, April 2025 Food inflation was highest in Benue (25.59%), Ekiti (16.73%), and Yobe (13.92%) while Ebonyi (-14.43%), Kano (-11.37%) and Ogun (-7.06%), recorded decline in Food inflation on MoM basis.
LOOKING AHEAD, headline inflation is expected to moderate further in May 2025, with projections ranging between 22.90% and 23.40% YoY. This anticipated deceleration is largely attributed to softer PMS pump prices, the statistical impact of a high base from the prior year, and the recent rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). However, several upside risks remain. Persistent insecurity in key food-producing regions, seasonal pressures from the ongoing planting season, continued depreciation of the Naira particularly affecting import-dependent sectors alongside global supply chain disruptions and ongoing trade war, are expected to exert upward pressure.
The CBN has remained committed to orthodox monetary policy, focusing on inflation control amid ongoing currency pressures, FPI outflows, and global uncertainty. However, with headline inflation expected to moderate in May 2025 driven by lower PMS prices, lower food cost, a high base effect, and CPI rebasing, there’s scope for a slight policy adjustment. We anticipate a modest cut in the MPR at the May 19 – 20, 2025 MPC meeting.
