Nigeria’s oil production recorded a notable increase in July 2025, averaging 1.71 million barrels per day (bpd), the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has announced. The figure represents a 9.9 per cent year-on-year surge from the 1.56 million bpd produced in July 2024. According to the Commission, last month’s output comprised 1.507 million bpd of crude oil and 204,864 bpd of condensates. On a month-on-month basis, total production rose by 0.89 per cent compared to the 1.69 million bpd recorded in June 2025. Performance across crude oil terminals showed mixed results. Forcados led production in July with 9.04 million barrels, a 2.1 per cent increase from June. Output at Bonny rose sharply by 12.7 per cent to 8.07 million barrels, while Escravos production grew by 7.1 per cent to 4.47 million barrels. Bonga terminal also recorded gains, delivering 3.68 million barrels, up 4.2 per cent from the previous month. Odudu (Amenam Blend) and Tulja-Okwuibome terminals posted modest growth of 2.9 per cent and 2.8 per cent respectively. Despite the rebound, Nigeria continues to fall short of its 2025 federal budget production target of 2.06 million bpd, set against a benchmark oil price of $75 per barrel.
Money Market
System liquidity opened the session with a surplus of ₦1.40 trillion. Week-on-week, the Open Buy Back (OBB) rate declined by 240bps to close at 26.50%, while the Overnight (OVN) rates decreased by 220bps to close at 26.95%.
We expect inflow from OMO maturity to keep rates at this level.
Treasury Bills Market
The FGN Treasury Bills market traded actively through the week, with activity largely driven by robust system liquidity and successive OMO auctions. Early in the week, unmet bids from the previous session fueled demand ahead of the CBN’s ₦600bn OMO offer across the 89-day and 124-day bills, which attracted ₦1.03trn in subscriptions with ₦897.19bn allotted, pushing the stop rate on the 124-day bill up by 229bps to 25.99%. Midweek, attention shifted to another OMO auction where the CBN offered ₦400bn on the 84-day bill, recording ₦710.96bn in subscriptions and ₦349.46bn in sales, with the stop rate rising by 99bps to 26.49%. Later in the week, the CBN sold ₦842.50bn out of a ₦300bn offer on the 83-day bill, against total demand of ₦860.00bn, underscoring persistent investor appetite. In the secondary market, trading remained active with sustained demand across the curve. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield increased by 55bps to close at 19.13%.
We anticipate an active start to the week on the back of robust system liquidity.
FGN Bond Market
The FGN bonds market traded mixed through the week, opening on a bearish note as investors reacted to the previous week’s T-bills auction, where the 364-day stop rate rose by 90bps to 17.44%, pushing mid-curve yields higher with the 2032s quoted at 18.00/17.70. The following session was relatively active as investors digested the bond auction result, with the DMO selling below the offered amount and activity concentrated in the 2033s, which closed at 17.90/17.70. Midweek, the market turned quiet with limited flows, as the 2029s traded at 17.80% and the 2033s quoted at 17.65/17.50, before mild buying interest resurfaced, driving the 2032s to 17.75/17.60. The week eventually closed on a quiet note, with minimal activity across the curve. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield increased by 44bps to close at 16.94%.
We expect a slow start to the week, as we expect this sentiment to persist.
FGN Eurobond Market
The FGN Eurobonds market opened the week on a weak footing as news of Trump firing Fed’s Cook spurred concerns over the Fed’s independence, driving yields higher before recovering later in the session on sustained expectations of a September rate cut. Sentiment remained mixed the following day, with uncertainty around the Trump–Fed Cook saga weighing on investor confidence. Midweek, activity was quiet as participants awaited key U.S. data, and the release of Q2 GDP at 3.3% (above the 3.1% forecast) added fueled positive sentiment. The market eventually closed the week on a mixed note after U.S. PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, printed in line with expectations at 2.6%, leaving investors still broadly positioned for a September rate cut. Week-on-Week, the average benchmark yield declined by 12bps to 7.80%.
We look forward to key U.S. economic releases this week, including ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings, ADP Non-farm employment, ISM Services PMI, Non-farm Payrolls, and the Unemployment rate data, all of which will guide market sentiment ahead of the Fed’s September policy meeting.
Currency Market
The value of the Naira to the dollar appreciated by 0.23% to close at ₦1531.57/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).
Equities Market
The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) declining by 19bps to close at 140,295.50. Market capitalization also increased, closing at ₦88.78 trillion. Market breadth was positive at 0.61x. Meanwhile, trading activity was mixed on the day, as the volume of shares traded declined by 51% to 435.13 million units, while the total value of shares traded decreased by 63% to ₦10.39 billion.
Reflecting the week’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index recorded a 0.50% depreciation, as gains in MCNICHOLS (+18.75%), NEM (+17.29%) and BERGER (+15.31%) were offset by declines in SECUREID (-22.73%), GUINEA (-19.77%), and LASACO (-13.29%).
Overall, the NGX has posted a year-to-date gain of 36.31%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (-0.21%; -0.46% 1WK; 34.21% YTD), NGX Banking Index (0.88%; -1.21% 1WK; 40.95% YTD), NGX Oil & Gas Index (-0.51%; -0.18% 1WK; -12.19% YTD), and NGX Insurance Index (-1.54%; -0.18% 1WK; 78.77% YTD).
