Tag: Bond market

Tinubu Appoints Taiwo Oyedele as Finance Minister, Signals Shift to Economic Execution Phase

In a significant move aimed at accelerating Nigeria’s economic reform agenda, President Bola Tinubu has approved a cabinet reshuffle, appointing Taiwo Oyedele as the new Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy. The appointment, which took effect on April 23, 2026, follows Oyedele’s previous role as Minister of State for Finance and Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms.

The transition marks a strategic shift from policy design to implementation, with the Federal Government prioritising stronger coordination, improved governance, and tangible economic outcomes. Oyedele succeeds Wale Edun, ushering in a new phase focused on delivering measurable impact across key sectors of the economy.

Under his leadership, the administration is expected to intensify efforts toward policy consistency, aggressive revenue mobilisation, and structural reforms aimed at reducing the cost of doing business. Central to this agenda is the elimination of multiple taxation and regulatory overlaps, which have long constrained private sector growth and investment.

Early indications of this renewed momentum emerged with the record ₦2.036 trillion disbursement by the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) for March 2026—the second instance this year that monthly allocations have surpassed the ₦2 trillion threshold. This development underscores the government’s focus on strengthening fiscal capacity and improving resource distribution across all tiers of government.

Oyedele’s extensive technical expertise in tax administration is also expected to enhance the operational efficiency of the newly renamed Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), while supporting the effective implementation of the 2026 national budget. His approach emphasises predictability in policy, expanding credit access across industrial and consumer segments, and fostering an enabling environment for economic growth.

The administration has set an ambitious target of achieving real GDP per capita growth of between 4% and 5%, a benchmark considered critical for meaningful poverty reduction and improved living standards for Nigerians.

Meanwhile, developments across Nigeria’s financial markets reflected mixed sentiment during the week. Liquidity in the money market declined, with system liquidity dropping from ₦4.97 trillion to ₦3.85 trillion, while rates remained relatively stable. The Treasury Bills market recorded strong investor demand, driving yields lower, while the Federal Government bond market traded on a cautious and slightly bearish note ahead of upcoming auctions.

In the international market, Eurobond performance was influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly tensions surrounding the U.S.–Iran ceasefire, with yields moderating slightly. On the currency front, the naira depreciated marginally by 1.10% week-on-week to close at ₦1,358.44/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window.

The equities market, however, delivered a strong performance, with the NGX All-Share Index gaining 3.94% week-on-week to close at 225,722.49 points. Market capitalisation rose to ₦145.34 trillion, reflecting renewed investor confidence, particularly in banking and consumer-related stocks.

Analysts note that the combination of leadership changes at the helm of fiscal policy and evolving market dynamics will be critical in shaping Nigeria’s economic trajectory in the months ahead. With a renewed focus on execution, stakeholders will be closely watching how policy reforms translate into real sector growth, job creation, and improved economic outcomes for Nigerians.

April 27, 2026
Bulls Lead Market Rebound, Investors gain ₦515.68 billion

…The Naira depreciated by 0.23% to close at ₦1,386.72

The local bourse rebounded today, as renewed interest in Industrial and Consumer Goods counters lifted the All-Share Index by 40 basis points to close at 201,287.78 points. The positive close marks a recovery from the previous session’s weakness, as investors returned to fundamentally sound names and selective heavy core earnings performance drove the market back into positive territory.

The market returned bullish on account of gains in INTENEGINS, MTNN, PZ, CADBURY, NB, NAHCO, WAPCO, OANDO, CAP and 11 other advancers that lifted the overall market performance.

Consequently, the year to date return improved to 29.35%, as market capitalization appreciated by 0.40% to ₦129.21 trillion, representing a ₦515.68 billion addition of investors’ funds to the market.

Sectoral performance was positive, as three of the five tracked indices closed higher. The Consumer Goods index led the gainers, up by 0.24%, supported by gains in PZ, CADBURY, andNB. While the Industrial Goods and Oil/Gas indices rose by 0.20% and 0.08%, lifted byWAPCO, CAP, ETERNA and OANDO, respectively. On the flip side, the Insurance index led the laggards, down 3.64%, weighed down by steep losses in LASACO, GUINEAINS, LINKASSURE, ROYALEX, NEM, MANSARD, FTGINSURE, WAPIC andCUSTODIAN.

Similarly, the Banking index declined by 1.76%, pressured by broad-based losses in ZENITHBANK, GTCO, FIRSTHOLDCO, FCMB, WEMABANK, UBA, ACCESSCORP, and JAIZBANK.

MARKET ACTIVITY: Market activity was positive, as traded volume and value appreciated by 44.19% and 5.40% to 855.41 million units and ₦27.03 billion, respectively.

MARKET BREADTH: The market breadth, which measures investor sentiment through the Gainers/Losers ratio, decreased to 0.40x from 0.79x as 20 stocks appreciated, 50 stocks depreciated, and 63 stocks closed flat.

FIXED INCOME MARKET: The average yield of the Treasury Bill and Bond markets closed slightly bearish at 17.62% and 15.59%, respectively.

The Naira depreciated by 0.23% to close at ₦1,386.72

March 31, 2026
Explainer- Why Nigeria’s Inflation Drop in January 2025:A Statistical Mirage or a Turning Point?

In a transformative recalibration that could redefine Nigeria’s economic trajectory, inflation metrics have been reshaped by rebasing the Consumer Price Index (CPI), unveiling a striking shift in expectations. The newly adjusted Headline CPI for January 2025 stands at 24.48% year-over-year, marking a dramatic 10.3% decline from the previous month’s figures.

Technically, on a month-to-month scale, inflation accelerated by 10.68% in January 2025 (index of 110.68) compared to the new base period, December 2024 (index of 100.00). While the headline figure’s adjustment signals a step toward stability, the latest figure still represents a 2.66% rise from the 21.82% initially recorded in January 2024, narrowing the inflationary gap.

With Nigeria now aligning more closely with Comercio’s 2025 Outlook projection— anticipating inflation to ease to 15%-20% by mid-year—this recalibration could mark a decisive turning point in the country’s battle against economic volatility. The tide is shifting, and a new chapter in Nigeria’s inflation narrative is unfolding.

Insight: A Statistical Illusion? Nigeria’s Inflation Decline Is a Recalibration, Not a Resolution

The recent rebasing of Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) marks a pivotal evolution in the nation’s inflation measurement, replacing the 2009 base year with 2024 and expanding the consumption basket from 740 to 934 items. The newly reported headline inflation figures show a significant decline compared to previous reports, but this difference should not drive excessive optimism. The more relevant gauge of inflationary pressure moving forward will be month-on-month (MoM) changes, which better capture short-term price movements and cost dynamics. The January MoM inflation rate stood at 10.68%, as the CPI index for January was 110.68, compared to 100.00 in December.

The sharp rise from December’s 2.44% MoM increase should not be a source of concern, as this surge is also a product of the statistical recalibration. MoM changes from February onward will provide a more meaningful gauge of inflation trends. By aligning inflation tracking with recent economic conditions, the updated methodology helps bridge the gap between reference and measurement periods, offering a more accurate reflection of consumer spending patterns and price movement assessments.

One of the most significant implications of this recalibration lies in its effect on short-term price volatility. By modernizing the reference period, the new methodology compresses the time horizon for inflation comparisons, smoothing out transient price fluctuations. Moreover, adjustments to the composition and weighting of the food basket—long a dominant force in Nigeria’s inflation trends—introduce further stabilization. With food and energy prices now carrying a reduced weight in calculation, their influence on inflation metrics is moderated.

While this revision tempers volatility in the year-over-year (YoY) inflation readings, MoM changes will serve as a more precise indicator of ongoing cost pressures. By anchoring inflation measurements to 2024, a year that recorded some of the highest
inflation levels in three decades, the rebase

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Conundrum: Less Hawkish vs Dovish?

The recent rebasing of Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) has redefined the nation’s inflationary landscape, setting the stage for a pivotal Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on February 19–20, 2025.5 Throughout 2024, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) pursued an aggressive tightening strategy, holding the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at elevated levels to counter persistent inflationary pressures. However, with recalibrated inflation figures now in play, the dynamics of monetary policy deliberations could take an unexpected turn.

As policymakers convene, the MPC may lean toward a dovish stance, particularly if they interpret the inflation drop as a fundamental shift in price stability rather than a mere technical recalibration. In this scenario, the committee could opt to hold rates steady at its irst meeting, waiting for further confirmation of sustained disinflation before altering its policy trajectory. If subsequent data continues to reflect moderate inflation prints, the groundwork may be laid for a gradual policy pivot, signalling a departure from the hawkish stance that defined 2024.

The upcoming MPC meeting scheduled for February 19-20, 2025, will be closely watched, as it could mark a critical inflection point in Nigeria’s monetary policy, shaping the course of inflation management and economic growth in the months ahead.

The Bond Market Buzz: Riding the Yield Curve Rollercoaster

In the bond market, these developments signal a crucial moment for investors to reassess inflation expectations and adjust risk models. The decline in inflation could compress near term risk premiums, potentially encouraging a shift toward long positions if investors anticipate future rate cuts.

If inflation expectations remain well anchored, existing bonds could close the year in positive territory. With inflation easing on a month-on-month basis, CBN may soon have room to adopt a more dovish stance. Despite this expected shift, we remain confident that inflationary pressures will decline significantly this year, aligning with our 2025 outlook projections. Additionally, we anticipate that CBN will loosen credit conditions very soon, providing further support for economic activity and financial markets.

February 18, 2025