The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has welcomed the recent release by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of Nigeria’s rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, anchored to a new base year of 2019. The announcement comes alongside the publication of the Q1 2025 GDP report, which provides critical insight into the current trajectory of the Nigerian economy.
Speaking on the development, CPPE Director/CEO, Dr. Muda Yusuf, lauded the rebasing exercise as a significant milestone in Nigeria’s economic data management and an essential step toward aligning with global statistical reporting standards. The updated figures, he noted, offer a more relevant, timely, and accurate reflection of the Nigerian economy—supporting better-informed decisions by policymakers, investors, and development partners.
Understanding the Significance of the GDP Rebasing
GDP rebasing is a crucial statistical process that updates the base year used to calculate a country’s national output. With 2019 now serving as the new base year, Nigeria’s GDP figures reflect shifts in consumption patterns, technological advancements, sectoral changes, and emerging industries that were previously underrepresented.
According to the CPPE, the updated GDP data introduces several critical advantages:
- More Informed Investment and Planning Decisions: Reliable and current economic statistics empower both public and private sector stakeholders to assess investment opportunities, plan more effectively, and allocate resources wisely.
- Enhanced Macroeconomic Credibility: The revised figures provide a stronger foundation for calculating key economic ratios—such as debt-to-GDP, tax-to-GDP, and fiscal deficit-to-GDP—which are essential for assessing Nigeria’s economic health and international standing.
- Improved International Comparability: By aligning with global reporting practices, Nigeria’s economy becomes more attractive to foreign investors, enhancing transparency and credibility in global markets.
- Better Sectoral Insights: The rebased data more accurately captures sectoral contributions, illuminating underreported segments and identifying new areas of opportunity.
The CPPE strongly recommends that future rebasing exercises be conducted more frequently and in line with global practices to maintain data reliability and relevance.
Q1 2025 GDP Report: A Mixed Outlook
Based on the newly rebased figures, Nigeria’s nominal GDP for 2024 was reported at ₦372.82 trillion, representing a 41% increase from the previous base year. The overall economy grew by 3.38% in 2024. In Q1 2025, GDP growth moderated slightly to 3.13%, with total output estimated at ₦94 trillion for the quarter. This brings Nigeria’s cumulative GDP to approximately ₦466 trillion—or an estimated $300 billion as of Q1 2025.
Dr. Yusuf noted that economic activity in the first quarter is traditionally subdued compared to subsequent quarters. However, CPPE projects that barring any major economic disruptions, Nigeria’s GDP could grow to an estimated $450 billion by year-end 2025, supported by continued macroeconomic recovery.
Sectoral Performance: The Good, the Bad, and the Underperforming
The Q1 2025 GDP figures also offer an opportunity to evaluate sectoral performance:
- Top-performing sectors included:
- Financial Services (+15.3%)
- Oil Refining (+11.51%)
- Transportation (+14.08%)
- ICT (+7.4%)
- Metal Ores (+25%)
- Contracting sectors included:
- Livestock (-16.7%)
- Fishing (-0.21%)
- Textiles (-1.63%)
- Coal Mining (-22.3%)
- Quarrying & Minerals (-21.55%)
- Plastics and Rubber (-3.2%)
- Iron & Steel (-0.35%)
- Air Transport (-0.81%)
- Sectors in recession: Coal mining, textiles, and air transport, all of which have experienced consecutive quarters of contraction.
Sectoral Contributions: A Closer Look
The rebased data revealed important shifts in sectoral composition:
- The non-oil sector continues to dominate, contributing 96.03% of GDP, while the oil sector accounted for just 3.97%.
- Agriculture’s share improved from 22.12% to 25.8%.
- Services sector contribution rose to 53.09% (from 50.22% pre-rebasing).
- Top GDP contributors included:
- Crop Production (17.58%)
- Trade (17.42%)
- Real Estate (10.78%)
- ICT (6.18%)
- Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas (5.85%)
Despite its dominance, the non-oil sector’s contribution to government revenue remains disproportionately low, underscoring persistent productivity challenges and limited formalization of economic activity.
Policy Recommendations by CPPE
In response to the data, CPPE has outlined a number of policy imperatives to strengthen Nigeria’s economic performance:
- Support Underperforming Sectors: Sectors in recession or decline—especially agriculture, manufacturing, and trade—require targeted interventions such as improved infrastructure, access to affordable finance, resolution of insecurity, and innovation support.
- Sustain High-performing Sectors: Continued policy support is vital for sectors showing strong growth. These sectors should be incentivized to expand their role in employment and revenue generation.
- Close the Revenue Gap: The disconnect between the non-oil sector’s GDP contribution and its limited fiscal impact should be addressed through better tax administration, broadening the tax base, and formalizing the informal sector.
- Commit to Regular Re-basing: CPPE urges NBS and relevant stakeholders to institutionalize a consistent and predictable re-basing schedule, aligned with international standards.
- Foster Stakeholder Engagement: Regular consultation with government, the private sector, academia, and development partners will enhance data application, policy design, and investment outcomes.
Conclusion
The CPPE commends the National Bureau of Statistics for achieving this major milestone despite prevailing resource constraints. The new GDP figures and sectoral insights provide a valuable tool for economic management, policy planning, and investor engagement.
As Nigeria looks to consolidate its growth path, CPPE emphasizes the need for evidence-based policies, data-driven investment decisions, and inclusive economic strategies. By leveraging improved statistical tools and fostering regular dialogue among stakeholders, Nigeria can better navigate its development priorities and position itself for sustainable growth in the years ahead.
