President Bola Tinubu, GCFR has asked the Senate to approve a supplementary external borrowing plan of $20.52bn and €1.045bn for 2026–2027 fiscal period as the Federal Government seeks additional funding to address Nigeria’s infrastructure deficit and support economic development. The proposed borrowing, valued at approximately $21.7bn, will support investments in key sectors, including power, transportation, healthcare, agriculture, education and security. Tinubu argued that additional external financing was necessary to bridge the country’s infrastructure funding gap, improve productivity and accelerate economic growth. He added that the proposed investments are expected to support job creation, skills acquisition, entrepreneurship, poverty reduction and food security. The request has been referred to the relevant Senate committees for consideration, with a report expected within one week. The proposed borrowing comes amid concerns over Nigeria’s rising public debt and debt-servicing costs, keeping attention on the government’s ability to manage additional external obligations while strengthening revenue generation.
Money Market
System liquidity saw an increasing trend throughout the trading week, opening at ₦7.30 trillion on Monday driven by primary market repayment and closing at ₦7.38 trillion. Week-on-week, the Nigerian Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) held steady to close at 20.00%, while the Overnight (OVN) rates increased by 2bps to close at 20.38%.
We expect rate to continue to hover around this level.
Treasury Bills Market
The Treasury Bills market traded on a calm note this week, as investors maintained a cautious stance ahead of the NTB auction. Activity remained subdued at the start of the week, with the 14-Oct bill trading at 15.80%/15.60%. Some activity was also recorded in the OMO space, with trades on the 21-Jan paper executed at 17.10%. Attention shifted to the NTB auction, where the DMO offered ₦800.00bn across the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day tenors, attracting subscriptions of ₦1.90trn. Despite the strong demand, the DMO allotted just ₦71.15bn, representing about 8.9% of the offer and the lowest allotment recorded this year. Stop rates declined across all three tenors, with the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day bills settling at 15.40%, 15.79% and 15.80%, respectively. The limited allotment, alongside lower stop rates, reflects the DMO’s measured approach to borrowing despite strong investor appetite. In the OMO space, the CBN offered ₦1.00trn across the 124-day and 138-day tenors, attracting subscriptions of ₦2.27trn. However, only ₦246.93bn was allotted, while stop rates cleared at 17.69% and 17.63%, respectively, with the 138-day rate unchanged. The low allotment suggests investors seeking higher returns than the CBN was willing to offer. Towards the end of the week, demand remained evident in the December OMO bills, which traded around 18.60%. The one-year benchmark paper 14-Oct bill, was seen trading around 15.70% levels, reflecting sustained interest at prevailing yield levels. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield held steady to close at 17.82%.
Looking ahead, we expect a cautious session as investors look forward to the upcoming NTB auction.
FGN Bond Market
The FGN Bond market traded on a mixed note this week, as investors assessed the outcome of the NTB and OMO auctions, alongside continued naira weakness. The market opened the week on a quiet note, with yields edging higher amid weak global sentiment and further depreciation in the naira. Activity remained subdued, with limited demand as investors maintained a cautious stance. Offers were seen on the 2034 and 2036 maturities at 17.00% and 17.05%, respectively. As the week progressed, continued naira depreciation and elevated oil prices kept investors cautious, although some demand emerged in the off-the-run 2033 maturity, which traded around 17.10%/16.85%. Activity remained muted ahead of the NTB auction results, with the 2036 and 2038 maturities quoted around 17.16%/17.05% and 17.16%/17.00%, respectively. Following the auction, where the 364-day stop rate declined by 10bps, investors maintained a wait-and-see approach, with only selective demand observed in the 2034 maturity at 17.00%. Towards the end of the week, the market maintained its bearish bias, with yields moving higher, but improved demand emerged during the session from local investors, with the 2036 and 2038 maturities eventually closing at 17.00%. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 1bp to close at 16.23%.
We expect the cautious sentiment to persist in the near term as investors assess the impact of the upcoming NTB auction on secondary market yields.
FGN Eurobond Market
The Eurobond market traded on a mixed note this week, as uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict continued to weigh on sentiment. The week began on a negative note as renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, alongside reports of attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz increased concerns over disruptions to global energy supplies. However, sentiment improved as diplomatic efforts gathered momentum, with Qatari mediators engaging Tehran and presenting a proposed framework to end the conflict. Reports of possible renewed peace negotiations, with reports that U.S. Vice President JD Vance had reached out to Iran’s senior security official to revive peace negotiations provided some support to the market. On the monetary policy front, the Fed held interest rates at 3.75%–4.00%, as expected, although Kevin Warsh’s cautious tone and lack of clear forward guidance left uncertainty around the policy rate outlook. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP growth of 3.4% in Q3, alongside an acceleration in PCE inflation to 3.6% from 3.4%, reinforced concerns that rates could remain elevated for longer. Towards the end of the week, sentiment weakened following reports of further attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and renewed Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia, while concerns over possible U.S. military action against Iran after the midterm elections kept geopolitical risks elevated. Week-on-Week, the average benchmark yield declined by 17bps to close at 7.16%.
We expect market direction to be driven by evolving geopolitical developments, U.S mid-term elections and Job data.
Currency Market
The value of the Naira to the dollar appreciated by 1.14% week on week to close at ₦1,346.25/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).
Equities Market
The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) increasing by 0.09% to close at 254,299.5 points while market capitalisation also increased to close at N165.10 trillion. Market breadth was negative at 0.78x. Trading activity was significantly active on the day, with the volume of shares traded increasing by 145.18% to 831.60 million units, while total value of shares traded increased by 168.31% to ₦68.80 billion.
Reflecting the week’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index appreciated by 2.86%, as gains in DANGCEM (+27.81%), HONYFLOUR (+25.98%), and UPDCREIT (+20.57%) were offset by declines in CAVERTON (-25.00%), LIVESTOCK (-21.99%), and AUSTINLAZ (-17.54%).
Overall, the NGX has posted a year-to-date gain of 63.42%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (0.09%; 4.06% 1WK; 65.29% YTD), NGX Banking Index (-1.29%; -0.94% 1WK; 60.27% YTD), NGX Oil & Gas Index (-0.06%; -1.71% 1WK; +127.90% YTD), and NGX Insurance Index (-0.96%; -1.97% 1WK; -13.64% YTD).
