At the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) 306th meeting, held on 20 and 21 July 2026, the Committee voted to retain all policy parameters. The Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) was left unchanged at 26.50%, while the Liquidity Ratio remained at 30.00%, the Asymmetric Corridor at +50bps/-450bps around the MPR, the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 45.00% for Deposit Money Banks, 16.00% for Merchant Banks, and 75.00% for Non-TSA public sector deposits. The Committee said the decision reflected the need to maintain its current monetary policy stance as inflationary risks remain despite the recent moderation in headline inflation. Members noted that although Nigeria’s headline inflation eased slightly to 15.91% in June from 15.93% in May, food prices remain elevated, while renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could increase global energy prices and add further pressure to domestic inflation. The MPC also highlighted the importance of maintaining exchange rate stability and said it would continue to monitor inflation, liquidity conditions, and global economic developments before considering any adjustment to interest rates.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) disclosed that 13 of the 50 oil and gas blocks offered during the 2025 Licensing Round failed to attract commercial bids and will be returned to the national licensing basket. However, 37 blocks (74%) secured commercial interest, reflecting a more selective investment environment. Although 286 firms initially applied for pre-qualification, only 196 met the regulatory requirements, while 143 bidders eventually submitted 200 commercial bids. Interest was largely concentrated in onshore and shallow-water Niger Delta assets with existing infrastructure, while frontier basins attracted limited participation due to higher geological and development risks. According to the NUPRC, the strict implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, including the “drill-or-drop” provisions and mandatory post-award financial obligations, helped ensure that only financially capable investors participated in the licensing process. The Commission expects the successful development of the awarded blocks to boost Nigeria’s crude production and support the government’s target of achieving 3 million barrels per day by 2030, while increasing export earnings and foreign exchange inflows.
Money Market
https://www.digital.zenithbank.com/ZEQ/ZEQ-jan-2026/index.html#p=1System liquidity saw an increasing trend throughout the trading week, opening at ₦1.81 trillion on Monday, and closing at ₦3.77 trillion driven by primary market repayment. Week-on-week, the Nigerian Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) held steady to close at 22.00%, while the Overnight (OVN) rates declined by 1bp to close at 22.12%.
We expect rate to continue to hover around this level.
Treasury Bills Market
The Treasury Bills market traded on a bullish note this week, as investors shifted their focus back to the secondary market following the FGN bond auction. Early in the week, activity remained subdued as market participants stayed on the sidelines ahead of the FGN bond auction, while the 15-Jul bill was seen quoted at 17.45%/17.30%. Sentiment improved as the week progressed, with sustained buying interest concentrated on the newly issued 15-Jul bill, which repriced from 17.30% levels to 17.20%. By week-end, renewed demand extended to the 17 Jun NTB, with offers seen at 17.15% levels, while the 15-Jul bill was seen quoted at 17.15%/17.00% to close the week. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 17bps to close at 18.28%.
We expect market participants to shift their focus to the upcoming NTB auction.
FGN Bond Market
The FGN Bond market traded on a bullish note this week. The week began on a quiet note as market participants awaited the outcome of the DMO bond auction, where ₦1.2 trillion was offered across the 2035, 2037 and 2038 maturities. Although investor demand was robust, total subscriptions came in at ₦1.73 trillion, while the DMO allotted only ₦931.81 billion. Stop rates on the 2035 and 2037 maturities held steady at 18.34% and 18.35% respectively, while the 2038 maturity cleared at 18.40%. Following the auction, sentiment turned bullish as sustained buying interest from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) emerged across the on-the-run bonds, which drove yields lower. During the week, trades on the 2035 and 2037 maturities were seen executed as low as 17.75%, reflecting strong demand for the papers. By week-end, sentiment improved following the DMO’s decision to revise its Q3 borrowing plan downward from ₦3.8 trillion to ₦3.4 trillion, easing supply concerns. Consequently, the 2035 and 2037 maturities closed the week quoted at 17.80%/17.60%, respectively. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 26bps to close at 17.18%.
We expect a cautious session, as market participants continue to assess the implications of the revised DMO auction calendar.
FGN Eurobond Market
The Eurobond market traded on a mixed, albeit bearish note this week as investors closely monitored developments surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict. The week began on a mixed note as the United States and Iran continued to exchange military strikes, although reports that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire aimed at reviving the interim agreement reached last month briefly raised hopes of a diplomatic resolution. However, sentiment weakened after President Donald Trump stated that the United States had “no interest in meeting” with Iran, while renewing threats to target Iranian infrastructure. Tensions escalated further after Iranian-aligned Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, raising concerns over a second major threat to global oil shipping alongside the Strait of Hormuz. By week-end, sentiment remained bearish after Iran rejected a U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal, signalling that both sides remained far from reaching a negotiated settlement. Week-on-Week, the average benchmark yield increased by 5bps to close at 6.95%.
We expect market direction to be driven by evolving geopolitical developments and Fed interest rate decision.
Currency Market
The value of the Naira to the dollar appreciated by 1.31% week on week to close at ₦1,362.08/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).
Equities Market
The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) declining by 0.19% to close at 247,357.40 points while market capitalisation also declined to close at N159.59 trillion. Market breadth was positive at 1.28x. Trading activity was active on the day, with the volume of shares traded declining by 21.45% to 614.49 million units, while total value of shares traded also declined by 41.50% to ₦22.92 billion.
Reflecting the week’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index appreciated by 1.60%, as gains in FIRSTHOLDCO (+25.59%), UNILEVER (+19.31%), and CADBURY (+18.42%) were offset by declines in MECURE (-26.97%), ROYALEX (-12.84%), and TRIPPLEG (-12.34%).
Overall, the NGX has posted a year-to-date gain of 58.96%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (-0.22%; 1.98% 1WK; +59.47% YTD), NGX Banking Index (-0.40%; 9.93% 1WK; +56.26% YTD), NGX Oil & Gas Index (-0.04%; 0.10% 1WK; +96.80% YTD), and NGX Insurance Index (0.68%; 4.99% 1WK; -0.80% YTD).
