The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has said that the newly imposed 12.5% tariff by the United States on selected Nigerian exports is unlikely to have a significant impact on Nigeria’s economy, as the country’s major exports to the U.S. remain exempt from the measure.
https://www.digital.zenithbank.com/ZEQ/ZEQ-jan-2026/index.html#p=1In a policy brief released on Saturday, CPPE explained that the tariff forms part of the United States’ continuing trade protection strategy, following the judicial invalidation of the earlier reciprocal tariff regime. According to the Centre, the new measures appear to have been introduced under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act, with allegations of forced labour serving as the legal basis for their implementation.
The Chief Executive Officer of CPPE, Dr. Muda Yusuf, noted that although the legal framework has changed, the underlying objective remains the protection of U.S. domestic industries, the promotion of American manufacturing competitiveness, and the advancement of broader U.S. economic interests.
CPPE, however, emphasised that Nigeria’s exposure to the new tariff regime is relatively limited for two major reasons.
First, crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and other petroleum products account for more than 80 per cent of Nigeria’s merchandise exports to the United States, and these products have been exempted from the new tariffs. Consequently, the bulk of Nigeria’s exports to the U.S. will remain unaffected.
Secondly, the United States is not Nigeria’s largest export destination. According to Nigeria’s first-quarter 2026 merchandise trade statistics, exports to the United States accounted for only 5.56 per cent of Nigeria’s total exports of approximately ₦21.6 trillion. India ranked as Nigeria’s largest export market with 13.09 per cent, followed by France (9.29 per cent), the Netherlands (9.22 per cent), and Spain (7.68 per cent), placing the United States fifth among Nigeria’s export destinations.
While acknowledging that some non-oil exporters, particularly in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors, could experience reduced competitiveness in the U.S. market, CPPE maintained that the overall impact on Nigeria’s export earnings, foreign exchange inflows, and macroeconomic performance would be modest.
According to the Centre, the affected products constitute only a small share of Nigeria’s total exports, while the country’s dominant export commodities to the United States remain outside the scope of the tariff measures.
Despite its limited direct impact, CPPE observed that the development reflects a growing trend towards protectionism and the increasing use of trade policy as an instrument for advancing domestic economic objectives across major economies.
The Centre urged the Nigerian government to intensify efforts to diversify exports, strengthen manufacturing competitiveness, promote domestic value addition, and leverage opportunities under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). It also called for improved labour standards, greater supply chain transparency, and sustained diplomatic engagement with the United States to clarify the implementation of the new measures and mitigate potential challenges for affected exporters.
CPPE concluded that while the announcement of the new tariffs has understandably generated concern, the immediate economic implications for Nigeria should not be overstated. Rather, the more significant challenge lies in positioning the Nigerian economy to compete effectively in an increasingly fragmented and protectionist global trading environment.
