The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) moderated slightly to 15.91% in June 2026, down from 15.93% in May 2026, reflecting a 2-basis point decline on a month-on-month basis. On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation was 25.29% in June 2025, compared to 15.91% in June 2026, indicating a significant decline of 9.38%. The marginal moderation in headline inflation was supported by a slower pace of increase in core prices, although food inflation remained elevated.
https://www.digital.zenithbank.com/ZEQ/ZEQ-jan-2026/index.html#p=1Food Inflation rose to 17.52% on a year-on-year basis due to higher prices of key staples such as crayfish, fresh pepper, fresh tomatoes, dried green peas, yam flour, water yam, beef, banana, cassava flour, cowpea, garri, Irish potatoes, and yam tuber. On a month-on-month basis, it accelerated further to 3.75% from 2.98% in May 2026, indicating renewed pressure on food prices driven by supply constraints and higher distribution costs.
In contrast, Core Inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy, eased to 15.92% on a year-on-year basis from 16.82% recorded in May 2026. On a month-on-month basis, it also moderated to 1.66% from 1.94% in May 2026, reflecting a slower pace of increase in underlying non-food prices. Despite this moderation, consumer price pressures remained evident across key parts of the country.
When segmented, Inflation in Urban areas spiked by 1-basis point to 16.08%. Meanwhile, Rural Inflation declined to 15.48% on a year-on-year basis.
All Items Inflation
The highest all-items inflation rates were recorded in Niger (42.23%), Kogi (41.59%), and Abuja (39.91%), while Imo (19.47%), Ebonyi (20.79%), and Katsina (21.87%) recorded the lowest increases in headline inflation. On a month-on-month basis, inflation pressures were highest in Niger (11.65%), Katsina (8.13%), and Kwara (7.52%), whereas Bayelsa (6.48%), Benue (5.58%), and Cross River (5.12%) recorded the lowest monthly inflation readings.
Food Inflation
Food inflation was highest in Kogi (53.02%), Niger (43.83%), and Benue (40.83%), while Katsina (19.15%), Rivers (23.81%), and Imo (24.60%) recorded the slowest increases in food prices. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation pressures were highest in Katsina (16.82%), Kebbi (9.79%), and Niger (8.96%), whereas Borno (3.54%), Benue (2.36%), and Bayelsa (1.34%) recorded the slowest changes in food inflation across the states.
Looking Ahead, the marginal moderation in headline inflation offers little evidence of a sustained easing in price pressures. Renewed tensions in the middle east have increased uncertainty in global energy markets and could push crude oil prices higher, raising imported inflation risks.
Domestically, inflation is expected to return elevated as Dangote Refinery’s decision to price refined petroleum products in USD, following the end of the Federal Government’s Naira-for-Crude arrangement, could increase energy prices and logistics costs if the naira weakens further. In addition, increasing pre-election spending could gradually boost liquidity in the economy, adding to demand-driven inflationary pressures. In spite of these, the CBN is expected to maintain its current policy rate at the upcoming monetary policy committee
meeting. As such, the persistent food inflation, energy risks, rising domestic liquidity, and external uncertainties point towards a challenging inflationary outlook in the near term.
