Nigeria’s inflation landscape improved sharply in October 2025, with headline inflation easing to 16.05% from 18.02% in September and marking a major year-on-year decline to 17.82% from 33.88% in October 2024, according to fresh data from the National Bureau of Statistics. The reading, driven partly by a new base year, showed a mixed monthly picture as inflation rose slightly to 0.93%, reflecting renewed upward pressure on prices. Urban inflation moderated significantly to 15.65% year-on-year but accelerated on a monthly basis, while rural inflation slowed both annually and monthly, pointing to softer price pressures outside major cities. Food inflation also recorded a substantial year-on-year drop to 13.12% due to the base-year effect, though the month-on-month figure rose to -0.37% as prices of onions, fruits, vegetables, shrimp, groundnuts, and select meat items edged higher. Overall, the data signals a meaningful disinflation trend ahead of the MPC meeting, where expectations for a rate cut have strengthened as inflation continues to drift lower from last year’s highs.
Money Market
System liquidity saw a declining trend throughout the trading week, opening at ₦3.90 billion on Monday and closing at ₦1.30 trillion. Week-on-week, the Open Buy Back (OBB) remained steady to close at 24.50%, while the Overnight (OVN) rates decreased by 9bps to close at 24.83%.
We expect rate to continue to hover around this level.
Treasury Bills Market
The Treasury Bills market traded mixed through the week, beginning on a calm note with activity concentrated at the long end of the NTB curve, where the November NTB cleared around 15.25%. Sentiment remained muted as the CBN conducted an OMO auction offering ₦300bn each on the 175-day and 182-day bills, attracting strong demand of ₦3.76trn with ₦2.97trn allotted and driving a 14bps drop in the 182-day stop rate to 20.55%. Midweek, the market turned cautious amid heavy supply, starting with the DMO’s ₦700bn NTB auction that drew ₦1.29trn in subscriptions with ₦1.09trn allotted while stop rates held steady across maturities, followed by a second consecutive OMO auction where the CBN offered ₦600bn across the 174-day and 188-day papers, fully allotting ₦980bn and trimming the 188-day stop rate by 1bp to 20.54%. Activity later picked up as investors sought to exit their NTB auction winnings, with the Nov 19 bill quoted at 16.25%/16.00% amid upward pressure on yields driven by sizeable supply from both NTB and OMO issuances. The week closed on a calm yet mildly bullish note, with the Nov 19 bill softening to 16.00%/15.85% as demand re-emerged at the long end. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 5bps to close at 16.95%.
We expect a calm start to the week as market participants assess the outcome of the FGN bond auction and digest the MPC’s decision.
FGN Bond Market The FGN Bonds market began the week on a quiet note with minimal activity, though buying interest strengthened later in the session following a softer-than-expected inflation print of 16.05% (vs. 16.6% estimate and 18.02% prior), which briefly tilted the market bullish. Sentiment, however, moderated mid-week as the DMO released a revised Q4 issuance calendar increasing monthly supply from ₦300bn to ₦500bn, prompting more offers to surface and pushing the 2032s to trade around 15.40%. As the week progressed, the market turned mildly bearish, with yields retracing as investors reacted to the prospect of increased supply, reflected in wider quotes on the 2032s at 15.75%/15.55%. The tone remained soft thereafter, with offers dominating the curve and the 2032s quoted as wide as 16.00%/15.45%. The week closed on a quiet note, as participants traded cautiously ahead of Monday’s bond auction, with the 2032 maturity steady at 15.85%/15.60%. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 14bps to close at 15.36%.
We expect an active week as investors react to the bond auction results and the MPC decision.
FGN Eurobond Market
The Eurobond market began the week on a positive note, supported by expectations that U.S. government agencies would resume key data releases, offering clearer guidance on the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory; however, sentiment softened the following session as waning confidence in near-term easing pressured the curve. Mid-week, the market traded flat as investors awaited further clarity on the chances of a December rate cut, though sentiment later improved after S&P revised Nigeria’s outlook to ‘positive,’ prompting modest buying interest despite FOMC minutes signaling that policymakers may keep rates unchanged for the rest of the year. Toward the end of the week, the market turned bearish as stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls further reduced the probability of a December rate cut, driving renewed uncertainty and cautious positioning across the curve. Week-on-Week, the average benchmark yield increased by 20bps to 8.06%.
We look forward to the release of PPI, retail sales, and unemployment claims data.
Currency Market
The value of the Naira to the dollar declined by 0.99% week on week ‘to close at ₦1456.72/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).
Equities Market
The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) depreciating by 0.27% to close at 143,790.90. Market capitalization also declined, closing at 92.40 trillion. Market breadth was negative at 0.46xTrading activity was robust on the day, with the volume of shares traded increasing by 88% to 656.86 million units, while total value of shares traded increased by 175% to ₦25.59 billion.
Reflecting the week’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index recorded a % depreciation, as gains in NCR (NIGERIA) PLC (+60.55%), UNIVERSITY PRESS (+17.65%) and TANTALIZER (+17.29%) were offset by declines in INTENEGINS (-22.06%), MCNICHOLS (-14.90%), and VERITASKAP (-14.89%).
Overall, the NGX has posted a year-to-date gain of 38.70%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (-0.20%; -2.29% 1WK; +38.09% YTD), NGX Banking Index (+0.28%; -3.97% 1WK; 24.83% YTD), NGX Oil & Gas Index (-0.08%; -1.03%1WK; +0.87YTD), and NGX Insurance Index (-2.24%; -7.09% 1WK; 50.50% YTD).
