Nigeria’s oil production climbed to an 11-month high in May 2026, with combined crude oil and condensate output averaging 1.70 million barrels per day, reinforcing the country’s position as Africa’s largest producer. Crude oil alone averaged 1,530,354 bpd, equivalent to 102% of Nigeria’s 1.5 million bpd OPEC quota, while condensates contributed a further 170,446 bpd. The crude figure is the highest since January 2025, when output last reached 1.538 million bpd, making it a 15-month high for crude production on its own. On a combined basis, May’s output was the strongest since July 2025, when production hit 1,712,282 bpd. Daily output throughout the month ranged between a low of 1.51 million bpd and a high of 1.86 million bpd. On a month-on-month basis, combined production rose 2.77%, continuing a five-month uptrend that has seen output build steadily from 1.48 million bpd in February to 1.54 million bpd in March, 1.66 million bpd in April, and 1.70 million bpd in May. By terminal, Bonny led with a total blend of 293,870 bpd, followed by Forcados at 289,900 bpd, Qua Iboe at 173,360 bpd, and Escravos at 135,470 bpd. Odudu (Amenam Blend) rounded out the top five at 63,250 bpd. The NUPRC attributed the increase to sustained operational stability, with no significant pipeline or facility outages during the month, and the completion of all previously scheduled turnaround maintenance.
Money Market
System liquidity marginally increased throughout the trading week, opening at ₦4.50 trillion on Monday, and closing at ₦4.70 trillion. Week-on-week, the Open Buy Back (OBB) held steady to close at 22.00%, likewise, the Overnight (OVN) rates declined by 1bps to close at 22.16%.
We expect rate to continue to hover around this level.
Treasury Bills Market
The Treasury Bills market traded with a bearish tone throughout the week, weighed down by the DMO’s decision to revise the size of the upcoming NTB auction sharply higher, from ₦400bn to ₦1trn, a move that signaled increased supply pressure and kept sentiment subdued for most of the week. The week opened on a mixed but bearish note, as the revised auction circular weakened demand and pushed yields higher across the curve, with the newly issued 3 June bill quoted at 16.45%/16.20%. The bearish sentiment extended into Tuesday, which opened on an active note as participants remained wary of the prospect of increased supply, with the 3 June bill trading as high as 16.50%. The market opened on a calm note by Wednesday, though selloffs persisted, particularly at the mid-to-long end of the curve, with the 3 June bill quoted at 16.55%/16.45%. By week-end, the session was subdued, with participants largely on the sidelines amid limited buying interest, activity remained centered on the 3 June bill at the same 16.55%/16.45% level. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield increased by 11bps to close at 17.56%.
We expect a relatively quiet start to the week as the market positions ahead of the NTB auction this week
FGN Bond Market
The FGN bond market traded with a bearish bias throughout the week, as rising supply concerns in the NTB and broader macroeconomic uncertainty weighed on sentiment, though pockets of selective demand emerged in select maturities as the week progressed. The week opened on a bearish note, with increased supply expectations in the upcoming NTB auction weighing on sentiment, with the 2035 maturity quoted at 17.40%/17.25%, higher than the previous day’s levels, and the bearish tone extended into Tuesday, with yields continuing their upward trajectory as selling pressure persisted across the curve amid cautious investor positioning, pushing the 2035 maturity to 17.70%/17.55%. By Wednesday, the market opened on a slightly bearish note with activity remaining subdued as participants awaited clearer direction ahead of upcoming market events, though pockets of buying interest emerged in the 2035 and 2037 maturities, leading to a marginal decline in yields across those tenors. By week-end, the session opened on a calm note but still bearish overall, with subdued activity, though selective demand on the 2031 maturity stood out as quotes that opened at 17.62%/17.50% tightened to 17.50%/17.38% on the back of sustained buying interest through the session. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield increased by 9bps at 16.41%.
We expect the market to open the week on a cautious note, as investors await inflation data due this week.
FGN Eurobond Market
The Eurobond market traded on a volatile note throughout the week, as the U.S.-Iran conflict kept investors reacting to diplomatic developments, even as a hotter-than-expected US inflation print added to the cautious backdrop. The week opened on a negative note, though the market recovered some ground later as both Iran and Israel signaled a halt to strikes. Tuesday opened on a mixed note as Trump signaled the U.S. was nearing victory in the conflict while Israel cautioned Washington that any final agreement must account for its interests, before sentiment turned positive later in the session after Trump told reporters a deal to end the war could come within two to three days. Wednesday’s session opened on a positive note despite fresh U.S. strikes on Iran overnight, with US CPI came in at 4.2%, up from 3.8% previously, with the hotter print prompting a mixed market reaction. By week-end, the market opened on a calm but slightly bearish note after the U.S. military launched strikes against multiple targets in Iran for a second consecutive day, with Trump accusing Iran of dragging out talks on an interim peace deal, and the bearish tone extended through the session, erasing earlier gains, after Trump announced the U.S. would hit Iran very hard, while on the data front, US PPI came in at 6.4%, up from 6.0% previously. Week-on-Week, the average benchmark yield declined by 3bps to close at 6.83%.
We expect market direction to be driven by evolving geopolitical developments and FOMC meeting.
Currency Market
The value of the Naira to the dollar appreciated by 0.07% week on week to close at ₦1,363.82/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).
Equities Market
The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) depreciating by 0.05% to reach 244,738.7 points while market capitalisation increased marginally to close at N156.36 trillion. Market breadth was positive at 1.03x. Trading activity was mixed on the day, with the volume of shares traded declining by 6.50% to 1.15 billion units, while total value of shares traded increased by 21.50% to ₦47.17 billion.
Reflecting the week’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index appreciated by 0.56%, as gains in ABCTRANS (+25.60%), CONHALLPLC (+23.13%), and ABBEYBDS (+21.93%) were offset by declines in FIDSON (-25.86%), NEIMETH (-19.34%), and UHOMREITH (-17.36%).
Overall, the NGX has posted a year-to-date gain of 57.27%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (-0.03%; 0.78% 1WK; +56.50% YTD), NGX Banking Index (-0.17%; 2.18% 1WK; +60.56% YTD), NGX Oil & Gas Index (0.10%; -4.41% 1WK; +112.38% YTD), and NGX Insurance Index (0.73%; 2.19% 1WK; 5.89% YTD).
