Nigeria’s private sector displayed robust confidence in March 2025, with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbing to 52.3, up from 51.4 in February, marking a third consecutive month of expansion. This sustained growth, driven by rising customer demand and increased commitment to new projects, underscores a resilient economy navigating global headwinds. The PMI, which signals expansion above 50, reflected broad-based gains across key sectors: Agriculture led with a strong 54.7, fueled by agribusiness resilience, while Industry and Services both recorded 51.5, indicating steady progress in manufacturing and service activities. Output surged to 52.8, highlighting increased production, while new orders and employment also grew, with firms hiring for three straight months to meet demand. Inventory stockpiling further signaled optimism for future sales. However, inflationary pressures persisted, particularly in Industry and Services, with input costs rising though at a slower pace than in 2024. Despite these challenges, the PMI’s steady rise following 52.0 in January and 50.2 earlier in the year points to a private sector adapting to high interest rates and forex constraints.
Money Market
System liquidity opened the session with a surplus of ₦303.04 billion. The Open Buy Back (OBB) and the Overnight (OVN) closed the day at 26.58% and 26.96%, respectively.
FGN Treasury Bills Market
The FGN Treasury bills traded opened the week trading on a quiet note ahead of the release of the Q2 issuance calendar. During the week, the Debt Management Office (DMO) released the Q2 issuance calendar. At the auction, the DMO offered ₦800 billion and allotted ₦424.58 billion from total subscriptions of ₦1.13 trillion. The stop rate on the 91-day bill rose by 50bps to 18.5%, while the 182-day bill saw a sharper increase of 100bps. Meanwhile, the 364-day bill stop rate remained unchanged at 19.63%, signaling a cap by the DMO. Sequel to the auction, there was demand for the newly issued one year bill. However, offers were scarce, causing demand to shift to the 26 March NTB with trades consummated at 19.40%. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield increased by 54bps to close at 20.53%.
We expect a similar session.
FGN Bond Market
The FGN Bond Market began the week on a muted note, with the 2031 maturity widely offered around the 19.75% level, though bids remained scarce. As the week progressed, activity stayed relatively quiet as market participants shifted focus to the NTB auction. Nonetheless, a few trades were executed on the 2031 and 2033 maturities at yields of 20.20% and 20.25%, respectively. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield increased by 8bps to close at 18.62%.
We expect demand to remain subdued.
FGN Eurobond Market
The FGN Eurobond market witnessed a turbulent week, marked by sharp yield fluctuations driven by the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff announcements and the global response. The week began on a bearish note as the negative sentiment from the previous week continued. However, sentiment briefly improved in the absence of immediate retaliatory measures. This optimism was short-lived, as renewed concerns over trade tensions resurfaced, compounded by Brent crude oil prices plunging to a four-year low of $58.3. In a surprising turn, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of the tariffs, restoring bullish sentiment and pulling the market back to its pre-Liberation Day stance. On the data front, U.S. CPI came in below expectations month-on-month at -0.1% versus the 0.1% forecast, and year-on-year at 2.4%, slightly under the consensus estimate of 2.5%. Week-on-Week, the average benchmark yield increased by 87bps to 11.54%.
We look forward to Retail Sales Data and Powell’s speech.
Currency Market
The value of the Naira to the dollar declined by 2.35% to close at ₦1603.87/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).
Equities Market
The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) declining by 21bps to close at 104,563.34. Market capitalization also decreased, closing at ₦65.71 trillion. Market breadth was positive at 1.84x, with 35 advancers and 19 decliners. This performance was driven by gains in CAVERTON (+9.96%), VFDGROUP (+9.90%) and ABBEYBDS (+9.86%), and losses in DEAPCAP (-9.71%), ROYALEX (-9.09%), and SOVRENINS (-7.61%).
Trading activity was mixed on the day, with the volume of shares traded decreasing by 12.27% to 379.37 million units, while the total value of shares traded increased by 3.97% to ₦10.10 billion. The most actively traded stocks by volume were ACCESSCORP with 73.22 million units, ZENITHBANK with 33.35 million units, and CUTIX with 29.66 million units. In terms of value, GTCO led with ₦1.73 billion, followed by ZENITHBANK at ₦1.65 billion, and ACCESSCORP at ₦1.51 billion.
Reflecting the day’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index reflected a 1-week loss of 0.90% with an overall year-to-date gain of 1.59%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (-0.27%; -1.00% 1WK; 1.79% YTD), NGX Banking Index (0.55%; -2.20% 1WK; 4.83% YTD), NGX Oil & Gas Index (-0.43%; -0.50% 1WK; -10.86% YTD), and NGX Insurance Index (+2.07%; -4.57% 1WK; -11.22% YTD).
