President Bola Ahmed Tinubu presented the 2025 Budget of Restoration, themed “Securing Peace, Rebuilding Prosperity,” to a unified and supportive National Assembly. The N47.90 trillion budget focuses on stabilizing the economy, enhancing infrastructure, healthcare, and education, and fostering job creation while addressing security challenges. Tinubu highlighted key achievements, such as a 3.46% GDP growth in Q3 2024 and foreign reserves nearing $42 billion, emphasizing ongoing reforms and fiscal discipline. Lawmakers reaffirmed their support during the presentation, underscoring collaboration between the executive and legislature to ensure the successful implementation of the administration’s Renewed Hope Agenda.
Money Market
Market liquidity opened the day at ₦377.50 billion short. The Open Buy Back (OBB) rate and the Overnight (OVN) rate closed at 31.79% and 32.33%, respectively.
We expect rates to hover around current levels.
Treasury Bills Market
The FGN Treasury Bills Market experienced a predominantly bearish and subdued week, with investors focusing on cherry-picking high yields across the curve. Notable activities included trades on the 11 Dec NTB at 22.65%-22.80% and the 9 Dec OMO at 23.70%-24.15%. Mild activity was observed on the 20 Feb NTB, offered at 24.25% with limited bids. Overall, attention largely shifted toward OMO bills, reflecting investors’ search for attractive yields. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield appreciated by 1bp to 25.63%
We expect a calm session as liquidity remains tight.
FGN Bond Market
The FGN Bonds Market traded quietly throughout the week, with limited activity across the curve as market appetite remained weak. Attention shifted to the bond auction, where the DMO allotted N211.15 billion against an offer of N120 billion, with total subscriptions reaching N278.82 billion. The stop rate on the 29s rose by 14bps to 21.14%, while the rate on the 31s held steady at 22.00%. Minimal trading was observed, with bids on the 29s at 21.15% and the 31s hovering around 22.00-22.05%, reflecting subdued market participation. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield appreciated by 6bps to 19.14%
We expect a quiet session as focus shifts to the bond auction.
FGN Eurobond Market
The FGN Eurobonds Market experienced a mix of bullish and bearish sentiments throughout the week, driven by global economic data and Federal Reserve actions. Bullish trading was observed early on as traders anticipated rate cuts, which were confirmed mid-week with a 25bps reduction by the Fed. However, bearish sentiment dominated later sessions, fueled by the Fed Chair’s cautious outlook on further easing, strong U.S. job and GDP data, and continued sell-offs in SSA Eurobonds. Additionally, PMI data highlighted mixed economic signals, with manufacturing contracting but services expanding significantly. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield appreciated by 29bps to 9.49%
We expect a similar session.
Currency Market
The value of the Naira to the dollar appreciated by 20bps to close at ₦1536.93/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).
Equities Market
The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) declining by 12bps to close at 101,129.09. Market capitalization also decreased, closing at ₦61.31 trillion. Market breadth was positive at 2.79x, with 39 advancers and 14 decliners. This performance was driven by gains in HONYFLOUR (+10.00%), UACN (+10.00%) and UNIVINSURE (+10.00%), and losses in MULTIVERSE (-9.80%), ARADEL (-9.09%), and INTENEGINS (-8.13%).
Trading activity was mixed on the day, with the volume of shares traded increasing by 26.69% to 506.90 million units, while the total value of shares traded decreased by 7.03% to ₦15.86 billion. The most actively traded stocks by volume were ZENITH with 60.41 million units, UBA with 43.45 million units, and STERLING with 43.32 million units. In terms of value, ZENITH led with ₦2.73 billion, followed by SEPLAT at ₦2.15 billion, and ARADEL ₦1.99 billion.
Reflecting the day’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index reflected a 1-week gain of 2.40% and a 4-week gain of 3.22%, with an overall year-to-date gain of 35.25%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (+0.18%; +0.63% 1WK; +33.61% YTD), NGX Banking Index (+1.66%; +3.88% 1WK; 19.70% YTD), and NGX Oil & Gas Index (0.31%; +0.99% 1WK; +160.12% YTD).
