President Bola Tinubu has increased the proposed 2025 budget from N49.7 trillion to N54.2 trillion, citing additional revenue inflows from key government agencies, including N1.4 trillion from the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), N1.2 trillion from the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), and N1.8 trillion from other government-owned agencies. The adjustment, detailed in letters to the Senate and House of Representatives, aims to strengthen fiscal stability and allocate more funds to infrastructure, social services, and economic development. The Senate has referred the proposal to the Appropriations Committee for urgent consideration, with a commitment to finalizing the budget by the end of February. Tinubu also set ambitious economic targets, projecting a reduction in inflation from 34.6% to 15% and an improvement in the exchange rate from N1,700/$1 to N1,500/$1. While the revised budget signals increased government spending to stimulate growth, analysts have raised concerns over Nigeria’s rising debt servicing costs, which have surged from N8 trillion in 2024 to N16 trillion in 2025, posing potential risks to long-term fiscal sustainability.
Money Market
Market liquidity opened the day at ₦315.95 billion short. The Open Buy Back (OBB) rate and the Overnight (OVN) rate closed at 32.42% and 32.75%, respectively.
Treasury Bills Market
The market started the week on a bullish note, with activity primarily focused on the newly issued OMO bills and the 22 Jan NTB, which traded between 20.75% (bid) and 20.60% (offer). Ahead of the PMA, trades on the 22 Jan NTB settled at 20.45%, while OMO bills were bid at 21% with no offers. The NTB auction saw the DMO selling ₦670bn out of a ₦3.2tn subscription, with stop rates unchanged on the short and mid-tenor bills, while the 364-day bill declined by 148bps to 20.32%. Post-auction, the market remained active, with the 5 Feb NTB trading as low as 19%, marking a 132bps drop from the stop rate. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 90bps to 22.46%
We expect the bullish trend to persist.
FGN Bond Market
The bonds market had a bullish tilt throughout the week, with demand concentrated on mid-to-long tenors. The newly issued 2035 bond initially traded at 22.40%. Midweek, demand extended to the 31s, 34s, and 35s, trading at 22.35%, 21.10%, and 22.25%, respectively. The bullish sentiment persisted, with the 2029 and 2035 maturities trading at 21.50% and 22.00%. Post-NTB auction, the market maintained momentum, with the 2031 and 2035 maturities being the most active at 21.60% and 21.40%, while the 2029s was bid at 20.95% amid limited offers. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 12bps to 19.97%
We expect a continuation of recent bullish trend.
FGN Eurobond Market
The market opened the week bearish due to renewed trade tensions following Trump’s tariff enforcement but rebounded as the U.S. suspended tariffs on Mexico. A mixed session followed, turning bullish as U.S. JOLTS Job Openings data fell to 7.6M from 8.098M. Bullish momentum continued with strong U.S. economic data—ADP Non-Farm Employment (183K vs. 148K forecast) and ISM Services PMI (52.8 vs. 54.2 forecast). However, the week ended on a quiet note, with U.S. Initial Jobless Claims printing at 219K vs. 213K forecast. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield declined by 2bps to 9.09%
We expect the market to hover around current levels.
Currency Market
The value of the Naira to the dollar declined by 150bps to close at ₦1500.41/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).
Equities Market
The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) appreciating by 48bps to close at 105,933.03. Market capitalization also increased, closing at ₦65.61 trillion. The market breadth was positive at 2.11x, with 40 advancers and 19 decliners. This performance was driven by gains in ETERNA (+9.88%), CADBURY (+9.88%) and FIDSON (+9.77%), and losses in TRIPPLEG (-9.72%), GOLDBREW (-8.91%), and VERITASKAP (-7.81%).
Trading activity was mixed on the day, with the volume of shares traded decreasing by 28.95% to 380.78 million units, while the total value of shares traded decreased by 59.99% to ₦9.20 billion. The most actively traded stocks by volume were CUTIX with 24.31 million units, ACCESSCORP with 23.64 million units, and STERLING with 22.79 million units. In terms of value, ZENITH led with ₦854.79 million, followed by PRESCO at ₦821.25 million, and ACCESS at ₦657.66 million.
Reflecting the day’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index reflected a 1-week gain of 1.13% with an overall year-to-date gain of 2.92%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (0.47%; 1.13% 1WK; 3.06% YTD), NGX Banking Index (1.72%; 3.45% 1WK; 14.87% YTD), NGX Oil & Gas Index (0.11%; 0.56% 1WK; -1.06% YTD), and NGX Insurance Index (1.64%; 0.66% 1WK; 0.23% YTD).
